Ray of Hope - 89th Draw

[AlliBatista]

Let's go!

Number of invitations issued: 3,500

Rank required to be invited to apply: 3,500th or above

Date and time of round: April 25, 2018 at 12:40:15 UTC

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 441

Tie-breaking rule: December 8, 2017 at 10:25:33 UTC

 

[AlliBatista]

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of April 19, 2018
CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 136
451-600 935
401-450 26,588
441-450 1,450
431-440 6,919
421-430 5,515
411-420 6,093
401-410 6,611
351-400 32,578
391-400 5,815
381-390 6,743
371-380 6,806
361-370 6,644
351-360 6,570
301-350 19,053
0-300 3,369
Total 82,659

 

[rehanacca]

How do you that. Looks like you are always ready to Click on post thread button after every draw lolz. Super Quick!

 

[northern sunshine]

Congratulations to everyone who will be receiving their ITA in the next 24 hours! Best of luck to all who are still waiting, or entering the pool in the next few weeks.

 

[Thay]

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 9 (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF

 

[hope2018]

Good to see IRCC continuing with 3500, next draw will be lower than 440 if next also is 3500 ITA. Finally hope for all those who are sitting below 440.

 

[alfred0]

After today's draw it finally reached to the bottom of the 441-450 range, next draw we might see 43X

 

[parth115]

Just a question, what if a buch of people reject ita? Does the tie breaker change dates or is it fixed in place?

 

[bfcsiqueira]

Oof, close one. I'm sitting on 440. Hopefully next one!

 

[hope2018]

Just a question, what if a buch of people reject ita? Does the tie breaker change dates or is it fixed in place?

Nothing changes.

 

[HoldingOnToHisPromise]

Happy for all who made it!!

The tie-breaking rule kinda scared me though.

 

[special3220]

Well the big positive from todays draw is to see that CIC is continuing with 3500 ITAs. Another one is 441 is the lowest of 2018 so far. Hopefully the draw will be regular from now on and deep down still hoping for some back to back draws so that score goes down lot quicker.

Personally, I am at 437 and I have never been this close to CRS before. Hopefully it will come down to my score and below soon.

 

[Lucaskaldo]

I have a 441 score. But my profile was made on the 27th of February.

 

[jainritu]

Hi all
Can somebody explain me the draw statistics..around 2000 people entered in the pool in last one week with scores 441 and above??? Am i correct?

 

[WoundedTiger]

Well the big positive from todays draw is to see that CIC is continuing with 3500 ITAs. Another one is 441 is the lowest of 2018 so far. Hopefully the draw will be regular from now on and deep down still hoping for some back to back draws so that score goes down lot quicker.

Personally, I am at 437 and I have never been this close to CRS before. Hopefully it will come down to my score and below soon.

Well..Canada needs you my friend...I am sure you will make it...Come what MAY..