I know about a case where the sponsor called CIC before getting AOR and found out her application was going to be returned. The file wasn't being mailed yet, so she asked what was wrong with it, and the person on the phone told her what. She mailed what they needed right away, even though it was going to be returned, and hoped for the best. Her file didn't get sent back, instead she got AOR later and was also informed they were able to attach the documents she mailed prior returning the application to her file. So, I think it is not that bad to be calling them now. Specially in my case, when I know the file is already in the system and they can have access to it and also give me information and updates on it. Also, some people have a harder time waiting, and calling and getting some information can ease their minds. Although If the file isn't in the system yet, then it's better to be patient. If people from July 20th and 21st are getting AOR already, it's possible that some July 25th applicants get AOR next week, as they wouldn't receive applications on July 22nd nor 23rd, since it was a weekend. I disagree the earliest would be September 11th, but like you, can't be sure about it.