Ray of Hope - 95th Draw

[nc100]

Hi
I have a permanent address in India but stayed on rent for about 2 years in 2008...I have not mentioned that in my express entry application. Is it alright?? All my proof have my permanent address only
Thanks

 

[Raj74]

T

Go thru below link, it should clear things for you.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-i...nts-for-all-express-entry-pnp-streams.432937/

Thank you very much. That was helpful.

 

[RPS92]

Can you please assess this projection and the tie break dates, based on your figures: Assuming new entrants 442 above (including new pnp recipients) are 300/week, hence the following estimates on 24th July:

440 till 24th July: 1400
441 till 24th July: 1400
442 and above: 600
Total: 3400

Assuming ITA size stays thesame, safe to project conservatively a 441 or 440 cutoff on the 25th of July? But, what would the tie break date be for these 2 scenarios? Then we could start hoping for a sub 440 cut off.

Your estimate is very conservative. I think on a day atleast 230-240 candidates are entering the pool above the 440 crs atleast. So 240*14 is around 3400 plus the pnps will be another 200-300 so next crs can’t be below 441

 

[gauravmlal]

Can you please assess this projection and the tie break dates, based on your figures: Assuming new entrants 442 above (including new pnp recipients) are 300/week, hence the following estimates on 24th July:

440 till 24th July: 1400
441 till 24th July: 1400
442 and above: 600
Total: 3400

Assuming ITA size stays thesame, safe to project conservatively a 441 or 440 cutoff on the 25th of July? But, what would the tie break date be for these 2 scenarios? Then we could start hoping for a sub 440 cut off.

Well I am afraid 442 and above would me many more than what you have estimated. Given the pattern of last few draws ,
600-1200 should be around 300-500 (given that no surge in nomination from any province like last draw)
451-600 should be 1200-1450
450-442 should be 350-500
If we consider the higher side of numbers then 1450+500+500 = 2450
Now If draw size is 3750 then we are left with 1300 more profiles
If we have assumed 1400 on 441 then we should enter third week of June for 441 cutoff.
But again for something like this to happen we need a draw for sure and that too with 3750 size.
Experts please add your opinion to justify the name of this thread and keep hopes alive , even when we know we can just predict and watch IRCC mock us.

 

[FairOntario]

Well I am afraid 442 and above would me many more than what you have estimated. Given the pattern of last few draws ,
600-1200 should be around 300-500 (given that no surge in nomination from any province like last draw)
450-600 should be 1200-1450
450-442 should be 350-500
If we consider the higher side of numbers then 1450+500+500 = 2450
Now If draw size is 3750 then we are left with 1300 more profiles
If we have assumed 1400 on 441 then we should enter third week of June for 441 cutoff.
But again for something like this to happen we need a draw for sure and that too with 3750 size.
Experts please add your opinion to justify the name of this thread and keep hopes alive , even when we know we can just predict and watch IRCC mock us.

Hopeful and realistic, hard to achieve this combination with this year's express entry's trend, but you have with your analysis. 441 with a 3rd week of June cut off...on the condition that a draw does happen on the 25th of July, with 3750 ITAs. This looks promising, as long as no more 3 week draw surprises. This is positive for those at sub 440, and can no longer increase their scores. At this rate some of us might get ITAs by late September.

 

[FairOntario]

Your estimate is very conservative. I think on a day atleast 230-240 candidates are entering the pool above the 440 crs atleast. So 240*14 is around 3400 plus the pnps will be another 200-300 so next crs can’t be below 441

@gauravmlal also agrees with you. Thanks.

 

[RPS92]

Well I am afraid 442 and above would me many more than what you have estimated. Given the pattern of last few draws ,
600-1200 should be around 300-500 (given that no surge in nomination from any province like last draw)
451-600 should be 1200-1450
450-442 should be 350-500
If we consider the higher side of numbers then 1450+500+500 = 2450
Now If draw size is 3750 then we are left with 1300 more profiles
If we have assumed 1400 on 441 then we should enter third week of June for 441 cutoff.
But again for something like this to happen we need a draw for sure and that too with 3750 size.
Experts please add your opinion to justify the name of this thread and keep hopes alive , even when we know we can just predict and watch IRCC mock us.

Naah, your estimate of people at 441 is gravely mistaken. In the last pool estimate, the no of people in 441-450 was 979 and before that it was 1731. Now the past draws had a crs of 442 so the number of people at 441 shouldn’t be more than 300-400

 

[Msmsms]

If nothing works, and you aren’t into any advanced stage other than just profile creation, you can withdraw current profile and create new profile with the new choice - spouse accompanying.

Thank you all for support! Was successful in adding spouse as accompanying but still exploring how to add dependant child.

 

[uthejsree]

I know a few of you folks suggested me to reappear for IELTS to max out my Language ability to at least CLB 10. Right now, it's CLB 9. I just don't feel like spending another $250 for the exam, considering I've already given the exam twice so far. I'm sincerely praying either I get a direct ITA, or at least an NOI from Ontario.

 

[Jimmysuperfly]

Praying for a draw this Wednesday!

Won't that just be great

Hopeful and realistic, hard to achieve this combination with this year's express entry's trend, but you have with your analysis. 441 with a 3rd week of June cut off...on the condition that a draw does happen on the 25th of July, with 3750 ITAs. This looks promising, as long as no more 3 week draw surprises. This is positive for those at sub 440, and can no longer increase their scores. At this rate some of us might get ITAs by late September.

I THINK there's the possibility of a program specific draw in and around the month of october. My assumption is from the fact that there are 3 possible draw wednesdays in october, and from trends this year IRCC would do what ever they can to disrupt that.
So the possibility of a draw once in 2weeks from now till the end of the year are very slim Imao.

 

[vensak]

how did you get a 480 score with 5.5 in speaking?

If he has CBL 9 + from French, than such score is easily possible

However one thing is true here.

apart of the PNP applicants (which have their own quota), the most important factor are your language skills.

How good you score in English or French (or both), does influence more than 50% of all your points.

Second after that is education.
3rd is your age
and last is work experience.
And yes that is valid even if you add to the consideration possible Canadian experience.

Of course in individual cases points distribution may have a bit different importance effect, however when we are speaking about max. achievable points and points that at least partially influenced (like transferability or a French bonus), that how the importance look.

So it was a bit amazing to see reluctance to improve the language score for main applicants or even take the IELTS / TEF tests for spouses.
And even more reluctance to get the ECA done for spouses.

All that when those are 2 most important factors.

 

[FairOntario]

I THINK there's the possibility of a program specific draw in and around the month of october. My assumptions are from the fact that there are 3 possible draw wednesdays in october, and from trends this year IRCC would do what ever they can to disrupt that. So the possibility of a draw ones in 2weeks from now till the end of the year are very slim Imao.

A Wednesday draw this week to compensate those who lost out due to the mass issuance of PNPs in the last one would further strengthen my hope in IRCC. True, a program specific draw is plausible in October. I only hope OINP comes to our rescue before then. Also, some people with scores 438/439 to 440 might get ITAs late September.

 

[gauravmlal]

Naah, your estimate of people at 441 is gravely mistaken. In the last pool estimate, the no of people in 441-450 was 979 and before that it was 1731. Now the past draws had a crs of 442 so the number of people at 441 shouldn’t be more than 300-400

Yes, infact I didn’t pay attention to that number , I was just replying to a question. Yes it seems to be way too high, given 441 was cleared on 23rd May. So number should be roughly 300-400 for new entrants and 150-200 for IELTS upgrades, making a total of 600. Well in that case we have a chance of 441 getting cleared in next draw if it happens on 25th July with a draw size of 3750. Let’s hope that way.

 

[harjitdhir]

I know this is something unpredictable but still I'd like to ask the analysts, Is there any hope for someone who created profile on 7 july 2018 with CRS 440 ?

 

[Reddiered07]

I know this is something unpredictable but still I'd like to ask the analysts, Is there any hope for someone who created profile on 7 july 2018 with CRS 440 ?

Coming draw not possible for sure..but expect within 2-3 draws if occurs regularly at 2 weeks!