Today's draw was good news really. I've updated my projections.
I had projected 432 +/- 1 for today, so it was right there. With the new information we should expect something like this:
- Draw on August 16 with 3200 ITAs: 426 +/-2
- Draw on August 23 with 3200 ITAs: 431 +/-3
- Draw on August 30 with 3200 ITAs: 438 +/-5
With draws every two weeks from now on, the score should drop below 430 on August 30 and below 420 on November 8.
There's not enough data to see the trend of new profiles for the past week, so these projections have a higher error margin.