O hello "points will never go below 450, like last year's predictions", you kinda make me laugh!
First, how can you be so SURE in your predictions? Unless you are clairvoyant, you can't say anything with that certainty!
And tell me this, if your math is so solid, how are they going to fill in qouta if they only need applicants above 440? Their qouta for 2018 is even bigger than for 2017, they would need to have 1 draw a year in order to have 80T candidates above 440, and that's if inflow in the pool remains the same!
And also when you mention PNP candidates, do you know that they have their own qouta not touching FSW qouta?
I don't want to argue, I just want to point that your "realistic" approach is not accurate.
And on the final note, we don't hope for unicorns to come and take us to Canada, we hope that everyone who is eligible can get ITA, which is plausible scenario.