Ray of Hope - 139th Draw

[ABridgy]

Does anyone know how could I apply for provincial nomination? CRS 470 and can't afford to wait for more time as birthday is approaching. Thinking about how to get the 600 points

Did you just create your profile, because the Feb 19th draw was 470

 

[seadrag0n]

I do believe that is what is happening already. Especially by individuals trying to scam people for good ielts results without even attempting the test. They would try to create fake profiles and keep the CRS elevated to trap desperate people.

I didn't event think of this, it is very much possible as there is no end to "Immigration Agents" offering fake IELTS results and whatnot for swindling desperate people out of their money and they have fake EE profiles on officcial IRCC website to show people as proof.

Just think about it, this year started with 3400 ITA's and since the first draw of the year happened after 3 weeks of the previous draw, the cutoff was 473 and since then the cutoff remains around 471. Even big draw size increase to 4500 didn't change this and the latest draw is just baffling, 5300 people entered the pool in two weeks and 4000 of them were above 471, how come more number of people are not entering the pool below 470?

 

[seadrag0n]

I've been thinking about this a lot actually.

How do we know that a lot of these high scoring profiles are not bogus? Is the system not open to manipulation?

I feel like IRCC should implement a preliminary analysis of the profile, where they verify the ECA number and language test result reference at least before profiles become active in the pool.

ECA and language test results are easy to fake, just take a legit ECA or TRF number and play with it until it lands on a valid report of someone else and enter those in all fake profiles, too easy.

 

[jrossi]

I do believe that is what is happening already. Especially by individuals trying to scam people for good ielts results without even attempting the test. They would try to create fake profiles and keep the CRS elevated to trap desperate people.

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case.
I've been gathering all sorts of possible data that I can regarding draws from the last year, and here's the graph for the average number of new candidates in the 450-1200 range, per day, in the last draws.
On draw 116, the one before FST draw in May 2019, the number of candidates added between draw 115 and 116 was 247 candidates/day.
The draw after the FST #117, had a 281 candidates/day average (again, this is for the 450-1200 range, I'm not considering the total amount of candidates in the pool).

Finally, this week's, March 4th, draw 138 had a 266 candidates/day average.

To sum it up: The average hasn't really changed THAT much since last year. Yes, it's trending upwards, but not drastically. What that means? That it's not a matter of a plethora of fake profiles entering the pool, but actually the quality of these profiles. If you imply that, let's say, half of the new profiles entering the pool are fakes, than you also need to imply that was the case in June 2019 as well, because the average candidates/day hasn't changed considerably.

NOTE: the spike in the graph happened in the B2B draw in December. Even though only 5 days passed between the 2 reference days*, the number of people in the pool remained close to the same amount, which indicates the influx of candidates between Dec 11th and Dec 16th was massive, for some mysterious reason (that's actually the only case where we could investigate a possible fraud regarding automatic profile creation)

* The graph was plotted based on the reference date for the breakdown of points published in every draw, instead of the actual date of the draws.

 

[Islander216]

ECA and language test results are easy to fake, just take a legit ECA or TRF number and play with it until it lands on a valid report of someone else and enter those in all fake profiles, too easy.

Sure, but if they screen them, they will know that the legit ECA or TRF number will not correspond to the profile's name and details.

That's what i think needs to take place, your profile shouldn't be activated automatically, someone should screen them first before activating them manually in the pool.

 

[seadrag0n]

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case.
I've been gathering all sorts of possible data that I can regarding draws from the last year, and here's the graph for the average number of new candidates in the 450-1200 range, per day, in the last draws.
On draw 116, the one before FST draw in May 2019, the number of candidates added between draw 115 and 116 was 247 candidates/day.
The draw after the FST #117, had a 281 candidates/day average (again, this is for the 450-1200 range, I'm not considering the total amount of candidates in the pool).

Finally, this week's, March 4th, draw 138 had a 266 candidates/day average.

To sum it up: The average hasn't really changed THAT much since last year. Yes, it's trending upwards, but not drastically. What that means? That it's not a matter of a plethora of fake profiles entering the pool, but actually the quality of these profiles. If you imply that, let's say, half of the new profiles entering the pool are fakes, than you also need to imply that was the case in June 2019 as well, because the average candidates/day hasn't changed considerably.

NOTE: the spike in the graph happened in the B2B draw in December. Even though only 5 days passed between the 2 reference days*, the number of people in the pool remained close to the same amount, which indicates the influx of candidates between Dec 11th and Dec 16th was massive, for some mysterious reason (that's actually the only case where we could investigate a possible fraud regarding automatic profile creation)

* The graph was plotted based on the reference date for the breakdown of points published in every draw, instead of the actual date of the draws.

I would still like to know why the cutoff is the same even after increased number of ITA's, maybe if they can share the number of candidates between 460-480, we can get an idea.

Sure, but if they screen them, they will know that the legit ECA or TRF number will not correspond to the profile's name and details.

That's what i think needs to take place, your profile shouldn't be activated automatically, someone should screen them first before activating them manually in the pool.

That would require IRCC to invest a lot in manually checking each and every EE profile that enters the pool which is not realistic and they would need a lot of manpower to get this done which I am sure they don't want to do.

 

[jrossi]

I would still like to know why the cutoff is the same even after increased number of ITA's, maybe if they can share the number of candidates between 460-480, we can get an idea.

Because the quality of the applicants has increased.

 

[ya222]

Because the quality of the applicants has increased.

No doubt, quality of applicant is increased. Still we can not deny the fact of declining ITAs every draw by CEC applicants

 

[Issygn]

Mo

Does anyone know how could I apply for provincial nomination? CRS 470 and can't afford to wait for more time as birthday is approaching. Thinking about how to get the 600 points

most likely with a job offer for most and others might select your profile for nomination. Aside these, you need to look out for PNP that suits your profile

 

[Issygn]

pls house i need some quick tips from those who have maxed out. Just so I don’t bother the forum with frequent messages of the IELTS. I would be glad if i can have a conversation with anyone who maxed out the IELTS. Kinda missing out on the longer passages and answers on the MCQ of the Listening test.

 

[monrealcanadians]

5300 people entered the pool in two weeks and 4000 of them were above 471, how come more number of people are not entering the pool below 470?

For example, I heard about Canadian immgration program only a couple months ago. I am aiming for CRS 480 but I haven't created my profile yet, since WES evaluation is still in progress. The day they finish the evaluation, I am going to create my profile and hopefully will be chosen in the very next draw.

I think it worked in this or similar way for the most of these 4000 people you have mentioned.

Also, if I knew I would be shooting way below CRS 470, then I would probably not care about creating a profile at all. The reason for this is that one should spend more time on increasing the score rather than just sitting at the end of the line. Creating the profile is pretty much the last step before the nearest draw.

 

[OMK2810]

My score got increased from 463 to 475 yesterday after my ielts results. What are the chances for getting ITA in next draw ? On what documents I can work at this point of time before ITA?

 

[ya222]

My score got increased from 463 to 475 yesterday after my ielts results. What are the chances for getting ITA in next draw ? On what documents I can work at this point of time before ITA?

you have high chance to get golden ITA. Brace yourself

 

[Visavie]

The conspiracy theories are strong around here. Canada wants people to come. If they see that there are a lot of discrepancies in the numbers they will investigate and fix it. For sure there's a percentage of fake EE profiles but CIC must deem that number within acceptable limit. Imagine if CIC starts making people pay (as some suggested) to create an EE profile? This may discourage a lot of people and Canada will not reach its targeted numbers.

People should relax and stay focused. If you need points, see how you can reach the maximum. If you did get the max you can get then that's it! You did your part.

Good luck to all

 

[monrealcanadians]

Imagine if CIC starts making people pay (as some suggested) to create an EE profile? This may discourage a lot of people and Canada will not reach its targeted numbers.

Making people pay, say $1, will not discourage anyone, but will dramatically decrease the number of fake profiles in the system.

Even paying $20, $50, $100 will not make a difference for real applicants. The reason for this is that real applicants are already spending a significant amount of money on their application. IELTS (~$230, if you take it once, without spending money on preparation), WES(~$200), Minimum amount of funds required (from ~$8.000), Application cost after being chosen (~$1000), Medicals cost (~varies by country, from ~$200), Tickets (from ~$1000). I believe there is way more than that.

A person who acknowledges that he would need to spend around $3000 during the application process and should have around $8000 in his pocket would never be frightened by a $1 sign up fee.