Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[haris_rasheed]

they can check POF anytime in between that so it is always recommended to keep the money intact

as per my knowledge CIC cannot check the current position of account at any point of time. They can only verify from the bank that the 6 months statement which is submitted by the applicant is legitimate or not.

correct me if i am wrong.

 

[nri7777]

as per my knowledge CIC cannot check the current position of account at any point of time. They can only verify from the bank that the 6 months statement which is submitted by the applicant is legitimate or not.

correct me if i am wrong.

when you electronically sign your application you give IRCC the access to your information and they can check it anytime they want. Moreover why do you have to withdraw the money in between and jeopardise the whole process ‍

 

[badri.sri139]

Any chance for 468 by end of December??

I am at 468 also, I have a feeling that we might not get until the last draw of December (Dec 18 b2b draw, if that happens)

 

[lazarus]

But it is another account
Where I am showing proof of fund is a joint account with my wife
liability of both primary and secondary applicant we need to show

Transparency is always recommended. It is better to declare to IRCC that you have availed a Car Loan, although from a different Bank.

 

[aikay]

I am at 468 also, I have a feeling that we might not get until the last draw of December (Dec 18 b2b draw, if that happens)

Why so negative ? 468 can even get ITA in the next draw this month ..

 

[Wasiu11]

Tiring journey! On May 8th, I increased my scores to 456 hoping I would definitely get picked on May 15th, that never happened, at a point the CRS came to 457 missing the cut by just a point. This month again, I have increased my points to 471 after claiming siblings points, missing out again by 1 point. Lord have mercy!

 

[aikay]

Tiring journey! On May 8th, I increased my scores to 456 hoping I would definitely get picked on May 15th, that never happened, at a point the CRS came to 457 missing the cut by just a point. This month again, I have increased my points to 471 after claiming siblings points, missing out again by 1 point. Lord have mercy!

You’ll get picked in 2wks time

 

[manju66]

I am stuck at 467, is there any chances for ITA this year?
Please reply a genuine answer

 

[Wrath]

Why so negative ? 468 can even get ITA in the next draw this month ..

Tbh, I wont even be surprised anymore if 2019 ends with 470 cut off, I mean just imagine in next draw it comes down by either 1 or 2 points and raising back to 472 again. I feel like only if b2b happens, we might see score coming down to 467-469. Just my opinion though. I dont mean to scare anyone but seeing the trend lately it is what it is.

 

[Wrath]

I am stuck at 467, is there any chances for ITA this year?
Please reply a genuine answer

Very good chance if, there is b2b draw in December

 

[haris_rasheed]

when you electronically sign your application you give IRCC the access to your information and they can check it anytime they want. Moreover why do you have to withdraw the money in between and jeopardise the whole process ‍

Yes we do give them permission but they do not have the permission to ask from the bank directly as the bank cannot disclose this information to anyone calling and saying I am the visa officer from Canada. (that's what I think logically) and I have few frndz working in bank! They said the same. The thing is that I have an investment opportunity which will come most likely between this time! So I was wondering if I can do both together I.e do the investment and show cic the funds in account as well.

 

[manju66]

Very good chance if, there is b2b draw in December

If there is no b2b draw , then?

 

[Sunshinnee]

Hi! According to https://www.cicnews.com/2019/11/new...-permanent-residence-2-1113167.html#gs.gj9ne5, 14,500 ITAs are left to reach the total number of 89,800 ITAs in 2018. This results in almost exactly 4 draws of 3600 until the end of this year, which implies b2b draws. However, this conclusion is true only if the total ITAs this year will not be less than 2018.

 

[Vvek]

Hi guys, I strongly feel CRS below 465 should start looking for alternative ways to increase CRS. I believe there are three more draws left this year with probably one back to back on December 18. This way the CRS might drop down to 464 or 465 but not below that. After that, there is 3-week gap and CRS would probably reach 472 and above.(Last year with 3-week gap score rose up by 10 points). If IRCC decides to do 4 draws which means two back to backs, then CRS might touch 460, but that is unlikely considering the decrease in ITA this week.
My predictions if IRCC conducts three draws with 1 back to back (Best case):
November 27: 470
October 11 : 468
October 18: 464

My predictions if IRCC conducts three draws with 1 back to back (Worst case):
November 27 : 471
October 11 : 469
October 18: 466

My detailed analysis is posted below. Discussions are welcome!

 

[Vvek]

Hi, this is my take on future draws. Just my analysis...


October 2:

Taking into consideration the calculation done by fellow members:

601-1200 = 905

451-600 = 9941


After 3900 ITAs on October 2nd, the pool as on October 3rd would have been:

601- 1200 = 0

465 - 600 = 0

451- 464 = 6964(9941-2995)- Since CRS was 464, remaining 6964 belongs to this range.


October 11

Total addition of candidates with CRS range 451-600 between October 3 & 11 = 9632- 6964 = 2686.

Among these additions, I strongly feel that around 70% are above 464 and 30% are below 464. Considering this the pool as on October 11 published by IRCC was:

601-1200 = 509

464- 600 = 1880 ( 70% of new addition i.e 2686)

451- 464 = 6964 + 805 = 7751 (30% of new addition i.e. 2686)


October 25

Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 12 & 25 = 12999 - (7751+1880) = 3367

Again, around 70% of these additions are above 464 and 30% are below 464 and above 451. Considering this and the data of IRCC, the pool as on October 25 was:

601- 1200 = 1255

465- 600 = 1880 + 2356 = 4236 ( 70% of new addition i.e 3367)

451- 464 = 7751 + 1010 = 8761 ( 30% of new addition i.e 3367)


October 30

Considering the past trends and recent trends, on average around 200 to 300 people with CRS between 451-600 enter into the pool per day. So we will take this matter into consideration for calculating number of new profiles.

Pool as on October 30: (considering 200 candidates per day for 5 days above 451 to 600)

601- 1200 = 1255 + 250 (50candidates per day for 5days ) = 1505

465- 600 = 4236 + 750 ( 150 candidates per day for 5 days) = 4986

451- 464 = 8761 + 250 ( 50 candidates per day for 5 days) = 9011


After the draw on October 30 with CRS of 475 with 3900 ITAs, the pool on October 31st might have been:

601- 1200 = 0

476- 600 = 0

465- 475 = 2591 (4986 - remaining 2395 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 9011


November 8:

Total new addition of candidates with CRS range 451- 600 between October 31 & Nov 8 = 14180 - (9011+2591) = 2578

Considering 280 candidates per day between 451-600 for 9 days from Oct 31 to Nov 8, the pool might have been:

601- 1200 = 757

476- 600 = 900 (100 candidates per day for 9 days)

465- 475 = 2591 + 958 = 3549 (100 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)

451 - 464 = 9011 + 720 = 9731 ( 80 candidates per day for 9 days rounded off to tally the pool published by IRCC)


November 13:

Considering 255 candidates per day between 451-600 for 5 days from Nov 9 to Nov 13, the pool might have been:

601 - 1200 = 757 + 275 = 1032 (55/day)

476 - 600 = 900+ 500 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)

465 - 475 = 3549 + 500 = 4049 (100 candidates per day for 5 days)

451 - 464 = 9731 + 275 = 10006 (55 candidates per day for 5 days)


After the draw on November 13 with CRS of 472 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 14th might have been:

601- 1200 = 0

473- 600 = 0

465- 472 = 2881 (4049 - remaining 1168 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 10006


November 27

Considering 220 candidates per day between 451-600 for 14 days from Nov 14 to Nov 27, the pool might be:

601- 1200= 900 ( I believe that PNPs now will slow down a bit but will still remain above the number of PNPs in September i.e around 500).

473- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)

465- 472 = 2881+980 = 3861 (70 candidates per day for 14 days)

451- 464 = 10006 + 700 =10706 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)


Considering the draw on November 27 with CRS of 470 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on November 28th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

471- 600 = 0

465- 470 = 2561 (3861 - remaining 1300 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 10706



December 11

Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 13 days from Nov 28 to December 11, the pool might be:

601- 1200= 800

471- 600 = 1400 (100 candidates per day for 14 days)

465- 470 = 2561+700= 3261 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)

451- 464 = 10706 + 700 =11406 (50 candidates per day for 14 days)


Considering the draw on December 11 with CRS of 468 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 12th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

469- 600 = 0

465- 468 = 1861 (3261 - remaining 1400 ITAs)

451 - 464 = 11406


December 18

Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 7 days from December 12 to December 18, the pool might be:



601- 1200= 350

469- 600 = 840 (120 candidates per day for 7 days)

465- 468 = 1861+350= 2211 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)

451- 464 = 11406 + 350 =11756 (50 candidates per day for 7 days)


Considering the draw on December 18 with CRS of 464 with 3600 ITAs, the pool on December 19th might be:

601- 1200 = 0

465- 600 = 0

451 - 464 = 11756 -199 = 11557



January 8 2020


Considering 250 candidates per day between 451-600 for 20 days from December 18 to January 8, the pool might be:


601- 1200= 900

465- 600 = 4000 (200 candidates per day for 20 days)

451- 464 = 11557 + 1000 =12557 (50 candidates per day for 20 days)


Considering 3600 ITAs the score might shoot upto 472 or more again!!