Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

[haider_Ali]

can you please stop this argument already?

Already closed. I was astonished at the provocative and biased analysis and the people endorsing it. This platform is very helpful and informative for people aspiring for canada. This shouldnt be turned into facebook and other dirt slinging social media platforms. Thanks

 

[Samal]

Coz people have the same credentials as you but are < 30 years old

I see. Thank you.

 

[cshetna]

Coz people have the same credentials as you but are < 30 years old

After 30 , there deduction of crs scores. It's a penalty of being old

 

[Samal]

After 30 , there deduction of crs scores. It's a penalty of being old

This is depressing...

 

[ankit_ec]

Hi ,
Is there any chance if CRS score will come back to 460 by end of this year 2019?. Any idea to support this.

 

[Luckbrother]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
Updated (October 30th)

• 460+ (Total 39): | Brain_Drain: 475 | stepass: 474 | Arsh45: 474 | elpoyoloco: 474 | adilgigyani: 473 | vinegarandsalt: 473 | HariPriya12: 471 | EricD: 471 | Ria-sharma: 469 | Mandeep1989: 469 | mudjawd: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Alina2222: 468 | sri8707 : 467 | Tahsina89: 466 | hkabz: 466 | Tanvirk: 465 | cas009: 465 | umayash: 465 | Ca_karan: 464 | imtiaz_canada: 464 | Anu66: 463 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | BindhuMadhvi: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Dimpysimple: 462 | aikay: 462 | cas009: 462 | gobsaini: 462 | haris_raseed: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 | AJ1208: 461 | shergill12: 461| sinmansion: 461 | bambisp: 461 | cdddelhi: 461 |

• 455-460 (Total 77) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Rickygugu: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | anukaran: 459 | awley: 459 | Nandita16: 459 | haider_Ali: 459 | WunderCat: 459 | Shawan: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | blueshark: 458 | Kumar Vipul Shrivastva: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Manishprasher: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Imran_114: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 | Hsiddiqui: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 64) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | SlowBurn: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | arvw: 453 | AR7: 453 | tokalaangel: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Artk: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | a.altigani: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |

• 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |

If your score is not included in the list or score is changed please reply to this post with your current score. Thanks!

Kindly add me at 468

 

[Luckbrother]

This draw cutoff date is quite scary. 29th August which is 2 months behind the draw that, what a time!!

Exactly! Got me thinking. Perhaps, we have alot of people right on the 475 score that may have registered after the 29th August tie breaker date. My hypothesis is that tie breaker date would have been September or early October if there weren't much people on that score. Just a hunch though

 

[chesin]

There should be 6 more draws to reach 2019 target and 7 weeks left until they call it a year. Get ready for back to backs. I think 450 and round abouts is possible by the end of the year and early next year.

 

[Ochenta8]

I have a question. Does NOC matter for CRS score? I mean I have a master's degree from a recognized university and 4 years of full time work experience, and I am currently a PhD student at Canadian University. And my score is 459, how are you guys getting such high scores? I mean now I am wondering wether I made mistakes when filling out the application, or is it okay that I have 459? Also I am 33 years old

You get around 5 point less for each year after 29. You lose about 20 point because of your age. see the chart.

• 20 to 29 years old - 110 points
• 30 years old - 105 points
• 31 years old - 99 points
• 32 years old - 94 points
• 33 years old - 88 points

 

[Luckbrother]

wait for another round. The Tie-breaking rule: August 29, 2019 at 03:50:24 UTC. People who applied after this day are not getting ITA in this round.

you should pay attention to the Tie breaking rule.

The tie-break procedure prioritizes those candidates whose profiles have been in the pool longer.

His score is above the cutoff. He should get ITA

 

[Cannybabe]

Exactly! Got me thinking. Perhaps, we have alot of people right on the 475 score that may have registered after the 29th August tie breaker date. My hypothesis is that tie breaker date would have been September or early October if there weren't much people on that score. Just a hunch though

Exactly! Got me thinking. Perhaps, we have alot of people right on the 475 score that may have registered after the 29th August tie breaker date. My hypothesis is that tie breaker date would have been September or early October if there weren't much people on that score. Just a hunch though

The last FSW draw was 464 and tie breaker rule was September thereabout. So, how come we have 475 August 29th still in the pool. Are they PNPs? Someone pls explain

 

[waitingforita]

His score is above the cutoff. He should get ITA

I just got my ITA!

 

[Luckbrother]

I just got my ITA!

Yeah, big congratulations mate. Hope to get mine in the next draw or so

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90 your calculations for the next draw please

Dear @Tousif_27 and @haider_Ali , below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 13th Nov draw:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:
601-1,200= 1,255
451-600=12,999
441-450= 9,045

It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)

For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))


Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off 475
3,900 minus:
-1,520(601-1200)
-344 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-344 (of 480 newly added score)
-344 (of 479 newly added score)
-344 (of 478 newly added score)
-344 (of 477 newly added score)
-344 (of 476 newly added score)
-316(of 344 of 475 newly added score)


After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675(486+189)people/score

For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,383(12,009+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,330(9,120+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-68(of 109 of 469 newly added score).

 

[waitingforita]

Yeah, big congratulations mate. Hope to get mine in the next draw or so

Good luck mate!