Dear
@Jasmine1998 ,below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 30th October draw:
After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739
Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14=
486 profiles per score.
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833
It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)
451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)
441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)
So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:
601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))
Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 481 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/31=283profile/score.
With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 473-475
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-283 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-283 (of 480 newly added score)
-283 (of 479 newly added score)
-283 (of 478 newly added score)
-283 (of 477 newly added score)
-283 (of 476 newly added score)
-283 (of 475 newly added score)
-283 (of 474 newly added score)
-44 (of 283 of 473 newly added score)