Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[a16107]

Assume 10 draws remaining this year, I am making the unrealistic assumption

Assume the next draw is 465

9: 463
8: 462
7: 461
6: 460
5: 459 (where the backlog starts since May)
4: 459
3: 458
2: 458
1: 457

The lowest score for 2019 : 458 or 457 Tie Break

@facethereality was correct in his earlier prediction, CIC will keep the score high for sure and it won't drop below 456 this year.

 

[nj22]

Hi Guys,

I require some assistance with a question. I am currently waiting for ITA, My CRS, I believe is a pretty good score over 460. I hope to get ITA during next rounds of invitation even though I created my profile on August 2nd. I am currently on a implied status. I applied for a TRV because my PGWP was expiring and PGWPs cannot be extended.
If I do get ITA, and PR is approved. During this process is there a likelihood of getting a Work Permit?

Thank you in advance.

 

[Milanarora]

2018

Total no of ITA’s issued were 89,600

Program specific draw was 500+400=900 ITA’s

All other program was 88,700 ITA’s

Till July 25th 2018 - ITA’s issued 47,000 – 15 draws conducted.

Total no of draws conducted in 2018 was 27. For Program specific 2 draws and for all other 25 draws.

2019

Total no of ITA’s issued will be equal to or more than 89,600

Program specific draw was 500+ X (Most likely in Sept 2019) = 1000 appx.

Till July 24th 2019 - ITA’s issued 49,000 – 15 draws conducted.

Total no of draws in 2019 – Most likely 27 draws in total. For Program specific 2 draws and for all other 25 draws.

I think 12 more draws will happen, one for program specific and 11 for all other programs.

Looking at the difference: - 89,600-49,000= 40,600 ITA’s left. Let’s assume 600 is for program specific.

We will still have 40,000 ITA’s and 11 all other programs draw. With increased quotas for 2019, I am assuming IRCC will issue more ITA’s than previous year. If they are planning for 10 more draws then it should be with 3900 ITA’s each.

It’s not going to be a 4 weeks gap because IRCC has to finish remaining number of ITA’s ….. lol they have targets too.

 

[Ilyushin76]

Assume 10 draws remaining this year, I am making the unrealistic assumption

Assume the next draw is 465

9: 463
8: 462
7: 461
6: 460
5: 459 (where the backlog starts since May)
4: 459
3: 458
2: 458
1: 457

The lowest score for 2019 : 458 or 457 Tie Break

@facethereality was correct in his earlier prediction, CIC will keep the score high for sure and it won't drop below 456 this year.

I always liked posts by @navinball and @facethereality. They made sense. Sadly, the way people treated them was very bad. Not to forget @Punitsingh, another realist

These predictions are based on your worse-case-scenario assumptions I suppose? (realistically speaking, no false hopes).

 

[a16107]

I always liked posts by @navinball and @facethereality. They made sense. Sadly, the way people treated them was very bad. Not to forget @Punitsingh, another realist

These predictions are based on your worse-case-scenario assumptions I suppose? (realistically speaking, no false hopes).

Yes but possible,

Ontario issued more than 3000 OINP and people are more likely to accept now (especially 456-459 NOI people are not feeling positive).

I hardly see any rapid downward trend even CIC issues 3900ITA. B2B draw may help but we don't see any reason as well.

 

[Ashish@985]

does your part time includes min 35 hrs or more if not then u have to wait for additional 4 months as far as i know

Ok Thank you

 

[Angel1113]

Hi there,
I started working from jan2017- april 2017 (parttime) and then rest full time.
so does that mean m completing 3 years in december if yes how many points do we get to complete three years. Please reply

So if you worked part time for four months and full time for rest of the 2 years 8 months. You will have to work additional 2 months full time or 4 month part time.

 

[Ashish@985]

So if you worked part time for four months and full time for rest of the 2 years 8 months. You will have to work additional 2 months full time or 4 month part time.

Ok Perfect Thanks
and m currently at 451 with 2 years experience so after 3 years how much its gonna be any idea?

 

[Angel1113]

Ok Perfect Thanks
and m currently at 451 with 2 years experience so after 3 years how much its gonna be any idea?

Yes if the work experience is in Canada then: 10 points with partner and 11 without a partner

 

[Ashish@985]

Yes if the work experience is in Canada then: 10 points with partner and 11 without a partner

Ok thank you

 

[Milanarora]

One thing is for sure now there won't be any 3 or 4 weeks gap going forward as the draws will happen every 2 weeks and that too with 3600 or more invitations. I am drawing comparisons between 2018 and 2019 and mathematically it doesn't make any sense. Yesterday’s draw was intentionally delayed as they want some candidates to opt for PNP route. Let’s hope for the best and in the meantime focus on improving our scores.

 

[navinball]

One thing is for sure now there won't be any 3 or 4 weeks gap going forward as the draws will happen every 2 weeks and that too with 3600 or more invitations. I am drawing comparisons between 2018 and 2019 and mathematically it doesn't make any sense. Yesterday’s draw was intentionally delayed as they want some candidates to opt for PNP route. Let’s hope for the best and in the meantime focus on improving our scores.

There will be an FST only draw which will be equivalent to a 4 week draw.

 

[DxR]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on July 29th 8:20 pm UTC):-

• 460+ (Total 06): | Uchyann: 1053 | ntsharma: 484 | praveen22: 467 | Harsha009: 463 | Sumedh: 462 | Rose1207: 460 |

• 455-460 (Total 60) – | nogachan301185: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punit Singh: 459 | atuls: 459 | mehr_ibrahim: 459 | jaibajrangbali: 459 | imusi: 458 | Khanstan: 458 | Barinderpal: 458 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | bhanu1986: 458 | Milanarora: 457 | jamlabhai: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | diaju:457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | Teenz: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456| missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 |

• 454-450 (Total 48) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 |

• 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | ArsheyaBegum: 447 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445

• 441-444 (Total 40)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | tonyzz: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

I am with you guys! 479

 

[ersandee]

One thing is for sure now there won't be any 3 or 4 weeks gap going forward as the draws will happen every 2 weeks and that too with 3600 or more invitations. I am drawing comparisons between 2018 and 2019 and mathematically it doesn't make any sense. Yesterday’s draw was intentionally delayed as they want some candidates to opt for PNP route. Let’s hope for the best and in the meantime focus on improving our scores.

This theory works there are lot of PNP invitations recently from Ontario, Alberta and BC too. CIC would like those candidates to be prioritised as needed by those Porvinces.

 

[Mayureshdave]

If it's a full 4-week gap, the cut off score might be very well above 475.
Reason: In may, the 4-week gap resulted in a 470 cut off score. However, this time we have over a thousand OINP nominees with 1000+ CRS in the pool.

But you also need to consider that before the rise in the CRS to 470, in the previous draw the score was 450 and this time it is 459. So this time chances are less of major change. Although I agree that cutoff will rise but not drastically.