Ray of Hope - 123rd Draw

[imusi]

I am at 459 didn't receive anything yet...

up to 24 hrs wait and you’ll definitely get it.
Are you an inland or outland applicant?

 

[jaibajrangbali]

Hi Everyone,

I'm so delighted to tell you, after being a part of great struggle from the last 6 months, I got my ITA today.

I want to thank each and everyone of you for being a part of this great CRS draw journey so far. Undoubtedly, everyone has unique story in their lives and when they fall down, they come up more stronger next time.

I've seen so many applicants so far who made themselves motivated through out till the time they didn't get the golden ITA ticket. Because they deserved the BEST!

Big salute to those, who're still waiting for their turns and didn't give up. You guys are the best examples for everyone who're striving for the best to happen still. Keep pushing yourself, don't stop, try hard to enhance your scores and don't give a single damn to negative folks. No matter what, never ever give up!

ALWAYS REMEMBER IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL YOU WIN!!

Congrats buddy and wish you all the success!! Cheers

 

[BLACKPILL]

I am praying for 1 point decrease each draw and let’s hope there is no major change for immigration this year. Am at 456 and looking at early September or October.

 

[Punitsingh]

So heart breaking!!! Worst thing is that tie breaker is only May 25. So all the people with 459 who created profiles in June/ July are still in the pool. Next draw might stay at crs of 459.

Very true

 

[enibeni23]

Hopefully, Draw 123 is going to be the draw where I'll get an ITA.

 

[Dheana90]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

 

[imusi]

Hi Guys,
I am currently @ 459. Profile created on June 17th, 2019. Any chances of getting picked before/ On September 4th draw? I will be losing 5 points on October 7th.

You’ll get your ITA in the next draw if it’s a regular bi-weekly draw

 

[Eddiesol]

Got it 30 minutes before!

I'm at 459 and still waiting for that email

 

[Adityan92]

CRS distribution estimation (441-1,200 range) and 7th August CRS cut off prediction are below:

July 5th CRS distribution are:
601-1,200 =312
451-600 =6,305
441-450 =7,169

It means, in 9 days from 26th June to 5th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 35profile/day (312/9)
451-600 =243prof/day(6305-4120=2185/9)
441-450 =30profile/day (7,169-6,895=274/9)

By 10th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =487 (312+ 175(35x5days))
451-600 =7,520(6,305+ 1,215(243x5))
441-450 = 7,319(7,169 + 150(30x5))

After the 10th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-487=3,113)
451-600 = 4,407 (7,520- 3,113)
441-450 =7,319

July 19th CRS distributions were:
601-1,200 =262
451-600 =6,193
441-450 =7,571

It means, in 9 days from 10th July to 19th July, there were:

601-1,200 = 29profile/day (262/9)
451-600 =198p'file/day(6,193-4,407=1,786/9)
441-450 =28profile/day (7,571-7,319=252/9)

By 24th July, the score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 =407 (262+ 145(29x5days))
451-600 =7,183(6,193+ 990(198x5))
441-450 = 7,711(7,571+ 140(28x5))

After today, 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-262=3,338)
451-600 = 3,843 (7,183- 3,338)
441-450 =7,711

Those 3,843 profile left in 451-600 are only those who have score of 451-459 only now. As the tie break was May 25th, it is evident that there were huge amount of profiles having 460+ scores after the 10th July draw because even with 3,338 invitation left, the cut of score was drop by 1 point only. The good thing is that the 451-459 profiles are decreasing thanks to the 3600 ITAs and the slow influx of high scorer profile entering the pool.

By 7th August, the score distribution would be approximately:
601-1,200 =406 (29x14days)
451-600 =6,615(3,843+2772(198x14days))
441-450 = 8,103(7,711 + 392(28x14days))

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457


With 3900 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 453-455

The cut off score will still be high because some of the PNP candidates might get approval between now and the next 2 week before the draw. So the number of profile who have 601+ and above will obviously increase as well. Unless CIC increases the ITA numbers then the increase in PNP candidates won't affect the cut off score much and the cut off will be more lower.

Amazing! Hopefully if the trend continues the score at some point might come down to 440. I am hoping I get 443 by end of September.

 

[m.alassaad]

Got it 30 minutes before!

Congratz dude. Well deserved. When are your plans to submit the e-APR?

 

[Punitsingh]

I am praying for 1 point decrease each draw and let’s hope there is no major change for immigration this year. Am at 456 and looking at early September or October.

Decrease can never be constant
Rate of decrease always decreases with each draw, see the fall in rate of decrease from CRS 470

 

[Punitsingh]

With 3600 ITAs
The cutoff score will be around 455-457

I doubt it will go 457 in next draw

No chance of 457 in next draw

 

[Yiss]

I'm so delighted to inform you that I received my ITA. Many thanks to all the folks in the ROH forums. It has been my my relief and confidence drug so far.

 

[nimitgupta]

July 24 draw

Number of invitations issued: 3,600
My score 468.

Entries in the pool-
1) 601-1,200 CRS- 262 entries
2) 451-600 CRS- 6,193 entries

Will I get the ITA?

 

[Punitsingh]

I’m at 453, do you think I should take IELTS again? If I do it right I could improve it to 462. My only hope would be to wait until September as my wife’s IELTS expire on the 30th.

Do it immediately