For me, the bigger scarier part is that the cut off is June 11th, which implies there are many more 460 scorers in the pool, we can estimate them to be around 1000.
The overall score has come down by 2 points to 460 but with an increase in 250 ITA's, the score is still hovering at 460s and going by present higher standards, we can expect anything below 457-458 to be just wasting our time.
So may young guys are applying with masters degree. Also, some people got their 2nd language certificate successfully which gives you extra 30 points + points for 2nd language.
Think a lot of people started getting better IELTS score as well as masters etc. Also the influx from the US due to the H1B issues might have caused this inflation. I hope that it's temporary inflation and it corrects itself sooner. Essential the luck factor also plays as well alongside the first mover advantage.
So finally, we can see the increase in ITAs. It's a trend every year that CIC make the major changes in Q3 and Q4. Now, the whole game will change and we'll start witnessing CRS score lowering down in the upcoming draws.
One thing is sure that now onward, draw will be conducted with 3600 ITA's and eventually it will jump to 3900 from next month onward.
This is a great sign for people waiting at 450 or below. Now, the backlog should be gone soon and CRS will start touching 450 & below scores
Just took my 2nd IELTS and I believe I have screwed up...This time I got too nervous in the speaking section. And now seeing the cut-off staying at 460 ?after a regular bi-weekly draw and with increased ITAs) really fuels my anxiety....
Have y’all noticed that, there are more remaining 450+ left in the pool after every single draw? As of June 21st there were 6265 450+. As of July 5th there were 6615 450+. As of May 24th there were only 5353 450+.
Which indicates that the system is merely clearing out the higher margin like 460+. Since there is more influx of 450+ ( approximately 3700 profiles every 14 days) than ITAs every two weeks, the score will never come down to lower 450s with this trend. An increase from 3350 to 3600 simply doesn’t compensate 3700 profiles every two weeks.
Therefore, theoretically, if they increase ITA to 3900, we will be clearing out 200 backlogs of 450+ every two weeks, assuming that draws are consistent, which will take 20 draws (10 months) for the score to come down to 450.
Sadly but true, the above assumption is the best case scenario that we can get which will likely not happen. The only hope is there will be less 450+ entering the pool in the future.
