10th Draw Fingers Crossed - Hopefully CRS points go below 450

[GARJ]

No draw tonight. Maybe tomorrow

 

[tomneversfield]

it is quiet indeed... hey wifedoctor did you already get an ITA? your profile/signature indicates you have a job offer... congrats in advance

As far as playing the guessing game... i'd say 494, if there's a draw tonight

I'm at 463... hoping for the best!

 

[wifedoctor]

If there's a draw on Saturdays when does it happen?

And Tom, I have a job offer that doesnt give me the 600 points sadly (no LMIA),,
I am standing at 500 points, so hoping for a non-LMIA/PNP heavy draw - if any!

 

[okbangaram]

Are we all just refreshing the cic website?

he he.. I guess so..
I am 100% sure there will be a draw in the next few hours.. The pattern is dead clear on this.

#1 – January 31, 2015 ==> Saturday
#2 – February 7, 2015 ==> Saturday

<break>

#3 – February 20, 2015 ==> Friday
#4 – February 27, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#5 – March 20, 2015 ==> Friday
#6 – March 27, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#7 – April 10, 2015 ==> Friday
#8 – April 17, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#9 – May 22, 2015 ==> Friday
#10 - May 29, 2015 ==> Friday (prediction)

<break> (prediction)

EDIT: Fixed the date. May 29th It will be

 

[Athemos]

Hello folks! I've been a silent spectator on this forum the last couple of months and this is my first post

Waiting anxiously like everyone else for the 10th draw, but seems unlikely it will be this month now.

The 9th draw was after a very long break and disappointing to be honest. Seems like they were waiting for enough candidates to have job offers/PNP and only issue ITA's to them. Hope it's not a sign of things to come.

 

[rickyfaneite]

he he.. I guess so..
I am 100% sure there will be a draw in the next few hours.. The pattern is dead clear on this.

#1 – January 31, 2015 ==> Saturday
#2 – February 7, 2015 ==> Saturday

<break>

#3 – February 20, 2015 ==> Friday
#4 – February 27, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#5 – March 20, 2015 ==> Friday
#6 – March 27, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#7 – April 10, 2015 ==> Friday
#8 – April 17, 2015 ==> Friday

<break>

#9 – May 22, 2015 ==> Friday
#10 - May 30, 2015 ==> Friday (prediction)

<break> (prediction)

You mean today? May 29th (Friday**?)

 

[HB.Agenda2]

No draw tonight. Maybe tomorrow

don't give up just yet.. last friday the draw was posted on CIC website at 01:50 UTC while it says it was drawn at 00:00:00 UTC...

so it takes a while for CIC to update the draw on the website... fingers crossed...

 

[wifedoctor]

Speculating of course, and entirely based on previous trends,

as pointed out above, there were 2 consecutive draws followed by a gap,

This allows for the first draw after the gap to gather as many 600+ applicants with LMIA and PNP,
and the second consecutive draw to gather the higher points applicants without the 600 bonus.

The gap is to aloow for new members with PNPs and LMIAs to join the pool, and the cycle begins again..


So there's still hope - I hope

 

[wifedoctor]

don't give up just yet.. last friday the draw was posted on CIC website at 01:50 UTC while it says it was drawn at 00:00:00 UTC...

so it takes a while for CIC to update the draw on the website... fingers crossed...

Oh really?

And do people typically get the ITAs at 00:00 or once the draw is published?

 

[Joey10]

CIC love keeping thousands of us guessing and hoping and then doing what no one expects.......

 

[HB.Agenda2]

Speculating of course, and entirely based on previous trends,

as pointed out above, there were 2 consecutive draws followed by a gap,

This allows for the first draw after the gap to gather as many 600+ applicants with LMIA and PNP,
and the second consecutive draw to gather the higher points applicants without the 600 bonus.

The gap is to aloow for new members with PNPs and LMIAs to join the pool, and the cycle begins again..


So there's still hope - I hope

given there is a draw tonight or tomorrow... if not we all wait until the 3rd week of June...

 

[Joey10]

Next draw September 18th ...... 2022

 

[wifedoctor]

Next draw September 18th ...... 2022

That'll be a problem, I'd lose all my age points!

 

[mf4361]

Oh really?

And do people typically get the ITAs at 00:00 or once the draw is published?

Actually there is a good pattern that I didn't noticed until now, the draws are all happened in the last two fridays of the month, except for January. So because May 2015 has 5 fridays, there is no draw in 1st, 2nd, 3rd Fridays and did on the 4th. Let's see if there is in the 5th (Today)

I believe people will receive ITAs within 24 hrs (save for technical glitches)

 

[aubre]

If by any chance there is a draw tonight, there is less likely that the score goes down to 450 unless the amount of applicants in one draw surpass the earlier max at 1637 people.

To achieve 450 points, there needs to be pulled about 2000 +/-100 applicants. CRS of 470 requires about 1500.

The calculations is based on inflows of applicants between the different drawings. For the inflow to be calculated the drawing needs to only affect applicants that last was drawn at the same time, or that the pool needs a new minimum. For example when the pool increased from draw 6 to 7 (453 to 469), we get an indication that pool received about 66 applicants a day with a CRS score between 1200 and 469. The same calculations can also be applied when the score hit the minimum, for example when the pool entered 453 the second time the total applicants accepted was 8491 indicating that the daily average of applicants entering the pool in 2015 with score between 1200 and 453 is 80.1 (The first time the CRS requirement was 453 the average was 80.6). The average inflow between the two rounds at 453 was 78 applicants a day with a score between 1200 and 453).