Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[Aryaansohaali]

They are yet to reveal the methodology. I believe they were giving noi to people who have a connection to Ontario.

I have a sibling in Ontario and was not given NOI at 446 points so connection thing doesn’t matter

 

[abhishek_89]

@abhishek_89 .. Seems like OINP has made your prediction work lot easier.. ... It will definitely be 447 and above in tomorrow's draw (or even future 2-3 draws), tempting candidates to accept OINP NOI..!!

If there is a draw tomorrow with 2750 ITAs, it is almost impossible to have a CRS 447 or above cut off.

 

[physiojib]

I have a sibling in Ontario and was not given NOI at 446 points so connection thing doesn’t matter

ok I received NOI yesterday, I studied and currently working in Ontario. So nothing else makes sense to me other than connection to Ontario.

 

[abhishek_89]

on the program update pages it is mentioned as :

"the OINP will post on its website a program update informing stakeholders of the methodology used to issue NOIs."

I guess they will publish the methodology as well along with criteria which would clear some of the doubts such as
EE creation date , NOC codes, CRS scrore , then I think it will be clear who can get NOI or not.

A minimum CRS score of 400 is already a criteria under the HCP program (http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNP_EE_CAPITAL_WHO.html)
How they select the required limited numbers from a pool with over 20K applicants having CRS 400 or above is what they would explain.

 

[Kaveh86]

I have a sibling in Ontario and was not given NOI at 446 points so connection thing doesn’t matter

They only gave NOI to those candidates who had created their profile from 1sth to 19th January. That's why you haven't received NOI.

 

[abhishek_89]

In that case NOIs issued will go in vain.

Yes. I got 1 NOI last year which went in vain. They just issue more NOIs than the required quota because not everyone accepts the NOI and proceeds to submit the OINP application especially those who would get direct ITA.

 

[nt13]

From what it seems, and believing there is some maths behind the pattern of CIC trends:

1. For CIC : to do their targets 2750 ITAs X 28 bi-weekly ( 2 draws a month and one or two additional) draws will be enough to reach roughly 77k ITA nos. Hence, the scores don’t appear to be cooling any faster. They might continue to hover in the range of 440 +/- 5 till April. Given that there would be fresh batches of immigrant students also joining the bandwagon after April once the have their degrees in hand.

2. For OINP: This might again be a similar pattern as that of CIC. 2 rounds in 2/3 months with NOI issue rate of 340/350 serves their purpose of issuing 2000 NOIs for HCP aspirants. This again will go parallel to last CIC cutoff scores or top CRS scorers. Like I said in an earlier post, they might target younger lot or the ones who are already in Canada.

Above is completely an individual hypothesis. No negativity intended. Could be wrong to a great extent (and I pray I am for my own self as I am on 402, that will go below 400 in July). But for now , those in the range of 400-420 are for a long haul. Unless we observe a change in the next rounds... whether that of CIC or OINP.

Tagging some known analysts and observers for their views @BillHyatt @abhishek_89 .

PS: I ain’t giving up yet, and am in no need of self help. Just trying to logically figure out what’s going on.

Thanks.

 

[Ragnar19]

Hello @abhishek_89 ,

My score is 438, do you think I have a chance in tomorrow’s draw?

 

[nt13]

A minimum CRS score of 400 is already a criteria under the HCP program (http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNP_EE_CAPITAL_WHO.html)
How they select the required limited numbers from a pool with over 20K applicants having CRS 400 or above is what they would explain.

They are already explaining it by declaring the NOI issuance criteria chosen, I.e date of profiles, CRS range and no. Of NOIs issued. I don’t see any more explanation coming. That’s about it.

 

[abhishek_89]

Ray of HOPE.
What is the hope of having the scores drop very low to about 350 as some are guessing due to the fact that they want to welcome 1 million immigrates by 2020.

The Express Entry would include only around 30% of the 1 million immigrants (target for 2020).
http://www.immigration.ca/canada-immigration-plan-targets-near-1-million-immigrants-3-years/

Also, the overall target for 2017 was 3 lakh immigrants and for 2018, 2019 and 2020 it is 3.1, 3.3 and 3.4 lakh respectively, which is just a marginal increase. The 3 year target looks huge but it is actually just a 3-6% increase each year which would be lesser than the additional number of people applying for Canada PR each year.

 

[SHABAM]

I wonder how many NOIs had been issued in 2017 and the response rate to those NOI! How many applications submitted, acceptance rate, rejection rate and for sure successful nominations per stream in OINP followed by the success rate with CIC EE. Any sources?

 

[smcan2014]

Hello Experts,

Can someone please guide me in selecting the correct field of study for each of the following. I'm trying to create my express entry profile.

1. Bachelor of pharmacy
2. Masters in Health and Hospital Management
3. Master of Science in Information technology

Thanks in Advance!

Can somebody please spare a minute for this question?

 

[Contactnisha]

So ontario would call the next set of people only after the next draw.
From now on cic cutoff s are proportional to the oinp cutoffs.
Where cic stops oinp starts from there
Just 330 noi is quiet disappointing although.

 

[abhishek_89]

From what it seems, and believing there is some maths behind the pattern of CIC trends:

1. For CIC : to do their targets 2750 ITAs X 28 bi-weekly ( 2 draws a month and one or two additional) draws will be enough to reach roughly 77k ITA nos. Hence, the scores don’t appear to be cooling any faster. They might continue to hover in the range of 440 +/- 5 till April. Given that there would be fresh batches of immigrant students also joining the bandwagon after April once the have their degrees in hand.

2. For OINP: This might again be a similar pattern as that of CIC. 2 rounds in 2/3 months with NOI issue rate of 340/350 serves their purpose of issuing 2000 NOIs for HCP aspirants. This again will go parallel to last CIC cutoff scores or top CRS scorers. Like I said in an earlier post, they might target younger lot or the ones who are already in Canada.

Above is completely an individual hypothesis. No negativity intended. Could be wrong to a great extent (and I pray I am for my own self as I am on 402, that will go below 400 in July). But for now , those in the range of 400-420 are for a long haul. Unless we observe a change in the next rounds... whether that of CIC or OINP.

Tagging some known analysts and observers for their views @BillHyatt @abhishek_89 .

PS: I ain’t giving up yet, and am in no need of self help. Just trying to logically figure out what’s going on.

Thanks.

Yes agreed on the CIC part, if they strictly stick to 2750 ITAs and bi-weekly draws, the cut off could hover around the 430s for sometime as we saw from Aug last year.
For OINP, I am eagerly waiting to see if a draw happens tomorrow. If it happens, they might just need to issue all those NOIs again to some other folks as most who got the NOI should get an ITA tomorrow. In that case, 2 rounds in 2/3 months won't help reach their targets. It is good to see them display the stats of who they are issuing NOIs to.

Tomorrow we will know if CIC and OINP are hand in glove or opposing forces!

 

[abhishek_89]

Hello @abhishek_89 ,

My score is 438, do you think I have a chance in tomorrow’s draw?

If only 2750 ITAs are issued tomorrow your chances are less, not nil though.