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Ray of Hope - 94th Draw

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I have a question for the experts. More of a theory that is bothering me.

In ROH threads we talk about the number of people entering at 440+ and so on, but when you are being optimistic with the current trend shouldn't the real question be how denser is the less than 440 crowd getting? Shouldnt we calculate the burndown rate of existing people in the pool? Assuming the current draw trends are going to continue won't that effect be countered by bottom of the pyramid getting even fatter?
For instance if I am at 430 and waiting for my turn, then there will be way more people joining 430-440 than 440+ which would leave people with less than 430 with zero hope (Even more people at 420-430). Especially 430s not getting cleared any time soon.

Can it hence be deduced that scores may never fall below, say 438, if current draw trends continue? So, less than 435 should even stop bothering checking ROH threads and go about their already happy life?

(I am at 422 btw. - bachelors degree, CLB9, 33yrs, spouse)
 
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I have 8.5, 9,7,7.5 in IELTS, clb 10 in all modules except writing, with current score of 437. Should I try for clb 10 in all modules by appearing in IELTS again or wait for few draws. As I'll loose five more point in October.
 
H S S said:
I have 8.5, 9,7,7.5 in IELTS, clb 10 in all modules except writing, with current score of 437. Should I try for clb 10 in all modules by appearing in IELTS again or wait for few draws. As I'll loose five more point in October.
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You should retake IELTS. It is now or never. Don't bother about the money.
 
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Mayur_M said:
I'm at 440, was thinking of retaking IELTS, but due to yesterdays draw in two minds now.
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Was previously on 437 but after retaking the English test, 3points got added and another possible 3points in the air as EOR on Writing and Speaking is on-going.
 
javeds said:
I have a question for the experts. More of a theory that is bothering me.

In ROH threads we talk about the number of people entering at 440+ and so on, but when you are being optimistic with the current trend shouldn't the real question be how denser is the less than 440 crowd getting? Shouldnt we calculate the burndown rate of existing people in the pool? Assuming the current draw trends are going to continue won't that effect be countered by bottom of the pyramid getting even fatter?
For instance if I am at 430 and waiting for my turn, then there will be way more people joining 430-440 than 440+ which would leave people with less than 430 with zero hope (Even more people at 420-430). Especially 430s not getting cleared any time soon.

Can it hence be deduced that scores may never fall below, say 438, if current draw trends continue? So, less than 435 should even stop bothering checking ROH threads and go about their already happy life?

(I am at 422 btw. - bachelors degree, CLB9, 33yrs, spouse)
Click to expand...
Yes they should go about their lives and at the time try to improve their score in the process. Having a score of 440+ is key.
 
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navinball said:
congrats to everyone who made it. quite a surprise to see 442, thought it would be in the 446 range.
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The ddraw happened 2 days early than normal, if not the cut off would have been around 446.
 
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ankurrana said:
number guys - prediction for next draw. I again missed it because of tie breaker :(
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High chance for a 440 cut off in the next draw if it happens on July 11th with 3750 ITAs.
 
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bimale4bipeople said:
You must be pestering you poor husband still :D
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lol, don't worry about him, coz I have given up on him already :P
What's the point of bothering someone when you know they will only open the book a night before exam :P
 
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