Ray of Hope - 83rd Draw

[Zara Khan]

Next draw: Feb 7
ITA :2750
Cut Off: 439-442

my score is 444 and i submitted my profile on 7th December 2017, does that mean i got an ITA?

 

[alexross]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

 

[h1b2pr]

my score is 444 and i submitted my profile on 7th December 2017, does that mean i got an ITA?

You should sign in and check. 444 is the minimum score required for ITA. If you don't get the invite that means you might have got missed out because of tie breaker rule.

 

[Zara Khan]

You should sign in and check. 444 is the minimum score required for ITA. If you don't get the invite that means you might have got missed out because of tie breaker rule.

but tie breaker is 17th january?

 

[alexross]

my score is 444 and i submitted my profile on 7th December 2017, does that mean i got an ITA?

Yes as per the information you have posted it looks like you should get. The tie breaking rule is if you had score of 444 and created before January 17, 2018 at 12:33:00 UTC. Since you say you have created your profile on 7th Dec 2017, that is prior to January 17th so you should have qualified for an ITA.

 

[h1b2pr]

but tie breaker is 17th january?

As per my understanding, it doesn't matter when you created your profile. It just gives you a rank and if your rank is 2750 or less you will get invite. Otherwise, next draw! Good luck. you have pretty good CRS.

 

[vensak]

A bit of humour.

I updated my profile submission details, so that it would state Ontario and all Provinces ( instead of just Ontario ).

I then got an email from CIC about a half hour later, my heart skips a beat, I think that it might be a NOI.

Nope, just an email confirming the update.

Do not do that.
That one will just rule you out of any Ontario NOI. It seems that they have a bug in that section and if you try to select specific provinces it will let you do so without deselecting "all" option.
However at the same time some provinces (like Ontario or BC) have data collection clause (that you agree, that they will collect your data) and that one is programmed the way, that it will disappear if you do that double selection (which does not make sense anyway).
So either select Ontario and any other province you wish; or select ALL

 

[amalmathew]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

Does that means 2280 new people with score above 440 in the pool every 2 weeks?

 

[Thay]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

Based on that and & biweekly draws

Jan 18 - 6857 applications in pool greater than 430.
Jan 24 = 6857 + (193x7) = 8207
8207 - 2750 = 5457
5457 is a forecasted number of candidates in pool after the draw on Jan 24 '2018

February 7th = 5456 + (193 x14) = 8158 candidates in pool on draw day
8158 - 2750 = 5408 candidates in pool after the draw.

Using this logic we are going down only by 50 positions every two weeks . This way we are SC#@%#D, it would take 162 draws to hit 430!

This must be wrong as i am doing this calculations on a side when i am doing my work.. JEZ..

If we come back to 3500 ITA's per draw then the 2 weeks difference is 800 positions = 10 draws to hit 430 border.

 

[alexross]

Does that means 2280 new people with score above 440 in the pool every 2 weeks?

The number changes for each time period but yes for the period of Jan 4th to Jan 18th it is 2280 new people have have entered the pool in the 2 weeks

 

[amalmathew]

The number changes for each time period but yes for the period of Jan 4th to Jan 18th it is 2280 new people have have entered the pool in the 2 weeks

If this trend continues the scores won't go below 440 anytime soon?

 

[alexross]

Based on that and & biweekly draws

Jan 18 - 6857 applications in pool greater than 430.
Jan 24 = 6857 + (193x7) = 8207
8207 - 2750 = 5457
5457 is a forecasted number of candidates in pool after the draw on Jan 24 '2018

February 7th = 5456 + (193 x14) = 8158 candidates in pool on draw day
8158 - 2750 = 5408 candidates in pool after the draw.

Using this logic we are going down only by 50 positions every two weeks . This way we are SC#@%#D, it would take 162 draws to hit 430!

This must be wrong as i am doing this calculations on a side when i am doing my work.. JEZ..

Your calculations look about right, but if you see the overall trend, above 430 was 239 per day from october 26th to november 9th. It has been decreasing to its current level of 193 per day. If the trend continues, this 50 position drop will accelerate to hopefully a few hundreds and higher. So the hope is if the number of ITAs doesn't increase, the number of new entrants should keep dropping to help the scores go down

 

[Thay]

Your calculations look about right, but if you see the overall trend, above 430 was 239 per day from october 26th to november 9th. It has been decreasing to its current level of 193 per day. If the trend continues, this 50 position drop will accelerate to hopefully a few hundreds and higher. So the hope is if the number of ITAs doesn't increase, the number of new entrants should keep dropping to help the scores go down

Yeah... i would still prefer this from my edited post:

If we come back to 3500 ITA's per draw then the 2 weeks difference is 800 positions = 10 draws to hit 430 border.

 

[alexross]

If this trend continues the scores won't go below 440 anytime soon?

Calculating from the past CRS pool distribution data is relatively straight forward. But predicting is tough because there are two main variables we really don't know:
1. ) are the number of new entrants going to keep decreasing as we are seeing in the past from october? if so we can expect a quick drop in the CRS
2.) Is the number of ITAs going to stay constant or is it to increase?

 

[Thay]

Calculating from the past CRS pool distribution data is relatively straight forward. But predicting is tough because there are two main variables we really don't know:
1. ) are the number of new entrants going to keep decreasing as we are seeing in the past from october? if so we can expect a quick drop in the CRS
2.) Is the number of ITAs going to stay constant or is it to increase?

To get a quick drop in the CRS we need about 140 candidates entering the pool above 430.That gives us 700 candidates difference from above calculation & 750 in total so CRS at 430 some time in beginning of July.

Best is to get both! ITA's increase and decrease of new applications. DO NOT APPLY LOL