Ray of Hope - 82nd Draw

[Thay]

Hey what would be cut off if we have draw next week with 2750

If it happens next week it will be 440 or below,

 

[Sandeep198511]

I assume the quota which you are talking about is the PR quota through the FSW + FST + CEC programs. Please note Express Entry also includes certain PNP programs too.

Also, 1 ITA does not always equal to 1 PR due to the below mentioned reasons:
1) ITA can be declined
2) ITA would expire if applicant does not submit application within 90 days
3) If applicant applies after ITA, the application can be cancelled or rejected
4) 1 ITA can include 2 PR's (Primary applicant + spouse)

CIC issued over 85,000 ITAs in 2017. Let's assume the ITA counts for 2018 would be same as 2017 even though the overall PR target is slightly higher this year. This means 85000 ITAs to be issued in 2018. If there are 26 draws (only bi-weekly draws), they would need to issue around 85,000/26 = approx 3250 ITAs per draw OR they need to have around 31 draws with 2750 ITAs which will lead to some 1-week gap draws.

All this is assuming the ITAs issued in 2018 will atleast be same as that issued in 2017.

Exactly my thoughts so CIC has two ways to manage it either draw size to increase or increased number of draws per year 2750 - 36 draws same calculation as above however increased PR target and also more provinces are aligning PNP streams to express entry which means more ITA also another possibility is increased draw size between 3500 to 3750 if they want to reduce work in office as I would do I will suggest increased draw size rather than increased draws

 

[PEIlove]

I missed at 445. Is there a chance in next round?

assuming 2-3 weeks gap draw you will get yout ITA next round!

 

[prongs13]

Maybe they issued a lot many ITA's in previous year's draws hence now they are trying to keep future number of invites lesser at 2750.

 

[Sandeep198511]

IRCC starts 2018 with record low cut-off score for a first draw of the year
https://www.cicnews.com/2018/01/new-express-entry-draw-january-10-0110011.html#gs.TBFVzoc

 

[aks01]

Stuck at 444 since last 3 draws, twice it touched 446 but still far away. After 20th January, I will be loosing 5 points because of my birthday. So my real hope is only if draw happens on 17th Jan and cut off goes lower. Huh.. I think I am being too optimistic here..

 

[tjsecondtry]

@andieangel - replying from ROH 81

I do like Toronto as a city. I'm in a very convenient location, close to the metro, grocery stores, movie theater, and tons of places to eat. The only downside I've found is that the underground walkway here doesn't connect to the main underground walkway. http://torontopath.com/path-map/ But for making a choice based on online ads and a 1 afternoon trip, I think I did well.

My place is extremely small and expensive, but for now it's the perfect place to be.

 

[tjsecondtry]

This is a brief shoutout to all Ray of Hopers in the Toronto area.

I'm planning on organizing a meet-up at the food court at Simcoe Place - 300 Front St. I'm thinking of a weekday at 7 or 8 in the evening. There's a Tim Hortons, as well as many other food places.

If you are interested, can you provide feedback on a preferred day of week or time?

 

[tjsecondtry]

2 750 for 25 to 26 draws is a very healthy estimation to meet their quotas:
Amount of immigrants NOT APPROVED APPLICATIONS needed:
75 000 - with direct CRS
1/3 of 55 000 = 18 400 PNP that will go through EE
93 400 immigrants to pass through EE (this includes spouses and children).

2 750 x 25 = 68 750 - ITA
with the 40% waste rate - 49 100 successful application
with average family size of 1.9 (main applicants and all dependants) = 93 290 approved immigrants.

So they only need 25 to 26 draws of this size to fulfill the quota - that equals one draw every to 2 weeks

If they need to slow down the system (to clear backlog on old applications) all they will to is to have few draws with bigger gaps

And that is all they need.

Of course all those calculations are based on estimated amount of PNP applicants, waste rate of ITA and the family size.

Good luck everybody.

You inspired me to look at PNP stuff. Here's what I could gather quickly. Anyone is welcome to correct or provide more current information.

Post script - after carefully spacing out all the data into columns, it collapsed them. Columns are for EE, other PNP, Total EE + other, and year of data. Underneath is where I got the data from.

EE Other Total As of

Alberta 5600 2018
http://www.albertacanada.com/opportunity/programs-and-forms/ainp-processing-inventory.aspx

British Columbia 1350 4150 6000 2017 *split 1015
https://www.welcomebc.ca/Immigrate-to-B-C/B-C-Provincial-Nominee-Program/Invitations-to-Apply

Manitoba 500 5000 5500 2015
https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/sites/default/files/Provincial Nominee Program Comparison-March7-Revised.pdf

New Brunswick 425 625 1050 2015
https://cahrc-ccrha.ca/sites/default/files/Provincial Nominee Program Comparison-March7-Revised.pdf

Newfoundland and Labrador 550 500 1050 2015

Northwest

Nova Scotia 350 700 1050 2016 *split 1015
https://novascotia.ca/government/accountability/2016-2017/2016-2017-Immigration-Business-Plan.pdf

Nunavit

Ontario 6000 2017
http://www.ontarioimmigration.ca/en/pnp/OI_PNP_PROCESSINGTIMES.html

Prince Edward Island

Quebec 5000 5000 2017
https://www.cicnews.com/2017/03/que...-5000-new-applications-039003.html#gs.tZdQhsE

Saskatchewan 5500 2018
https://www.saskatchewan.ca/residen...e-program/maximum-number-of-sinp-applications

Yukon

Total accounted for 36750

 

[cmizzle]

I have 464. I'm still waiting my ITA...

I have 464 as well and haven't received anything - Let me know if yours comes through!

 

[fv-br]

I have 464 as well and haven't received anything - Let me know if yours comes through!

Got the ITA at 3 pm EST

 

[cmizzle]

Got the ITA at 3 pm EST

Congrats! - hoping my comes through soooon!

 

[everydaydealer]

Congrats to all. sitting at 440. Hoping next draw.

 

[ishq74]

Friends don't lose hope, We may have a draw next week which will surely put the CRS cutoff below 440! Last year twice we had 3 weeks gap draws which were followed by a consecutive draw.

After July 12 draw we had 3 weeks gap draw on August 2 and immediately following week we had a draw on 9 August. Similarly after October 18 draw we had regular draw on November 8 (November 1st draws were only for pnp and fstp) and next draw was on the following week, November 15.

Hope these stats will cheer up few of my fellow Ray of Hopians!

 

[gihank]

Got ITA @ 468 points