Ray of Hope - 140th Draw

[georgeb88]

So looking at the numbers, if they had made the regular draw cut-off would have dropped.. to 469 maybe? so Its a Ray of hope after all.

 

[samirsam]

Update: New Changes to CRS Distribution list

The score range has been expanded now from 451 to 500 scores, see below:

491-500	197
481-490	421
471-480	1,047
461-470	9,437
451-460	10,502

Thanks but i can not find this

 

[georgeb88]

Only if they conduct draws regularly as usual because new high scoring applicants without ECA cannot enter the pool and getting an ECA quickly at this point seems very difficult.

Not just regularly but with the similar number of invitations like before .. But who knows if they are staffed enough to keep up with the processing of 3900 invites, considering the crisis situation. We might even see a new trend of regular draws but less invites. I hope that doest happen.

 

[ZAtoCD]

They might not even hold a draw untill the COVID issue calms down

Well COVID's been going for a while, and they did a draw 2 days ago, so... let's hope. Maybe even 25th. But most important is everyone should stay safe.

 

[seadrag0n]

Not just regularly but with the similar number of invitations like before .. But who knows if they are staffed enough to keep up with the processing of 3900 invites, considering the crisis situation. We might even see a new trend of regular draws but less invites. I hope that doest happen.

They might also do a draw next Wednesday to avoid 3 Wednesdays in April with 2 weeks between. Just speculating.

 

[rscape]

@psawardekar does it inspire a new model for your point-by-point-break-down estimation ?

Update: New Changes to CRS Distribution list

The score range has been expanded now from 451 to 500 scores, see below:

491-500	197
481-490	421
471-480	1,047
461-470	9,437
451-460	10,502

 

[Pgill2609]

Its come.down right

 

[Canex17]

Its come.down right

Considering the distribution of the 450+ applicants we've seen from the latest draw, the fact that very few people will be able to enter the pool with high scores in coming weeks, and we also now know 668 applicants in the 600+ range have received invites, I doubt very much it will increase to 474/475... even with a 3-4 week gap. The one and only time the CRS went to 475 was after a FST, which is far more targeted and wouldn't have the same impact to the cutoff as the high-scoring PNPs being removed from the pool does.

Sure, some people will still be entering with high scores regardless of the delays with language and ECA results, possibly from an increase in their experience or from the IELTS-G test before testing was suspended. On the other hand there could also be people losing points for age. That's always been the case.

I think the pool is going to stagnate a bit while all the services related to CRS calculation are shut down.

 

[journey21]

https://moving2canada.com/express-e...eSignal&utm_medium=EEDraw&utm_campaign=032020

 

[jrossi]

The most important number to look at is the 2,367 candidates in the 471-1200 range.
The reference date of the data provided is March 13th. The previous draw happened on March 4th. Let’s consider there’s around 350 people with 471 points. So, to round it up, 2,300 candidates were added in 9 days.

So, were talking about 255 candidates/day being added in the “golden range”.

In 14 days (the average time between each draw), there will be ~3600 new candidates ready to receive ITAs.

So, simply saying: if IRCC continues to issue 3900 ITAs every 14 days, we probably can expect a reduction in the CRS cutoff. Otherwise, the cutoff will remain at 471-473, or even increase.

if the next draw happens only on April 1st, then:

We can expect ~6200 candidates in the 471-1200 range. So, yes, there will be a temporary increase in the cutoff. UNLESS, the influx in the pool has indeed been reduced since March 13th.(For sure, it didn’t show ANY sign of reduction between March 4th and March 13th!)

 

[Issygn]

There seem to be hope for 471 and above .
quiet interesting to see these distributions

 

[Karanbir29]

I just got my IELTS results. I have to apply for PR by June end. Would a score of 480 be enough or should I retake the test?

 

[brokenira]

Does anyone notice that 668 ITAs were issued while only 448 persons had 601+ points as of Mar 13. In other words, 220 new profiles entered into the pool between Mar 13 to Mar 18. This is insanely high tbh

 

[jrossi]

Does anyone notice that 668 ITAs were issued while only 448 persons had 601+ points as of Mar 13. In other words, 220 new profiles entered into the pool between Mar 13 to Mar 18. This is insanely high tbh

No, it's not.

It averages 44 candidates/day in the range of PNPs (600+).
44 * 14 days = 616.

Pretty much every single draw from the previous months have had PNPs in the range of 500-700 candidates with more than 600 points. So, totally under the expected number.

 

[aycorek]

If there had been a draw with 3900on 18th March, crs score would have been 467-468. I am really depressed standing with 469.