Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

[a16107]

Hi people, please advise me on my current situation, I am in a dilemma right now. I got 2 years of experience in the US so far, sitting at 453 (456 maximum if I retake ielts) .My work authorization in the US is going to expire next March, so I will not get a chance at the H1 lottery next year. So I have only these options left now.
(1). Going with my current company overseas for two years then come back, I would say 20-30% chances that this is going to work.
(2). Waiting in the pool until maybe I get picked, but my case probably won’t get processed until next September or something, I can only stay in the US until next June before they kick me out. And I don’t wanna go back to China ever again, I may be arrested and never have a chance to get out again.
(3). Apply for a Canadian masters degree, which will boost my points a bit if I complete it since I already have a masters here. But I will be over 30 when I complete it.
(4). Apply for a US PHD, which is a long and tedious and frustrating process since I don’t wanna go back to my previous professors to ask for references.

I am glad that my family supports me for everything, and my mom understands that I would not go back ever again.

I prefer USA than Canada honestly, but I am ready to give up everything I have built up here ( I’m gonna be kicked out anyways). Shoulda gone to Canada for my masters degree 5 years ago if I knew this was gonna happen. It really upsets me seeing people live free here and I am the one who suffers.

Any advice and share of thoughts would be highly appreciated.

Hey stay strong bro ~ Hong Kong is with you

Freedom of speech is the basic standard in civilization (not threatening or hate speech)

Try to max 456 in your case first ~ it is possible to be picked within this year

 

[daughty]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 12:30 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 9) - Folaroyal: 505 | simranj72: 474 | sudhach91: 462 | Dkshitij18: 461 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461 | crjusuf: 461

• 455-460 (Total 34) – sarak1812: 460 | DreamITA: 460 | epema.kz: 460 | Ican2019: 460 | Rose1207: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punitsingh: 459 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | atuls: 457 |#EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455

• 450-454 (Total 37) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Teenz: 453 | Maya53: 453 | Uchyann: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | ArsheyaBegum: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450

• 445-449 (Total 61) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | MarvelousMitz: 445

• 441-444 (Total 40) - Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

452 please!

 

[daughty]

I would definitely consider myself new to this process. Due to a delay in my ECA and my husband's score just not cutting it, we have lost approximately 9 points. Final score is 452. Should I wait? I won't be losing any more points for a year now.

However, if I choose the PNP route, what does that entail? Any help would be appreciated?

 

[Dark_Night]

Updated Predictions for today's draw
*the number of entrants @ 451+ per day were 263 and not 243.

My predictions for tomorrow is 460 @ 3350 ITAs or 459 @ 3900 ITAs

The number of candidates with 451+ as at 5 July will be +/-6311 assuming +/-263 p/d ( [6265+3350-5934]/14 = 263 p/d) and 7220 up to 10-Jul. There will be 7220 between 451-600 and 443 at 600+. Of the 3681 (263*14) new entrants there will be about 443 at 600+ (on 21-Jun there were 285 - thus 285/9 X 14 = 443). Of the remainder (3681 - 443 = 3238) I've used historic data and estimate that about 44% fall between 471 - 600 on average and the rest between 451 and 470. Thus 44% x 3238 = 1423.

New entrants up to 10 Jul:
600+: 443
471-600: 1423
451-470: 1820 (91 x 20)

Distribution on 10 Jul:
600+: 443
471-600: 0 + 1423
462-470: 0 + 819 (91 x 9)
451 - 461: 4596 + 1001 (91 x 11) // 434 per n {this includes a backlog since 1 May}

Drawn:
600+: 443
471-600: 1423
462-470: 819
451-470: 665

665/434 = 1.53, thus cut off will be about 462 less +/-2. There should therefore be a tie-breaker for 460.

 

[chirkut]

My predictions for tomorrow is 459 @ 3350 ITAs or 458 @ 3900 ITAs

The number of candidates with 451+ as at 5 July will be +/-6026 assuming +/-243 p/d ( [5980+3350-5934]/14 = 242.57 p/d) and 7093 up to 10-Jul. There will be 6650 between 451-600 and 443 at 600+. Of the 3396 (242.57*14) new entrants there will be about 443 at 600+ (on 21-Jun there were 285 - thus 285/9 X 14 = 443). Of the remainder (3396 - 443 = 2953) I've used historic data and estimate that about 44% fall between 471 - 600 on average and the rest between 451 and 470. Thus 44% x 2953 = 1299.

New entrants up to 10 Jul:
600+: 443
471-600: 1299
451-470: 1653 (83 x 20)

Distribution on 10 Jul:
600+: 443
471-600: 0 + 1299
462-470: 0 + 747 (83 x 9)
451 - 461: 4596 + 913 (83 x 11) // 418 per n {this includes a 70/14 x 83 backlog since 1 May}

Drawn:
600+: 443
471-600: 1299
462-470: 747
451-470: 861

861/418 = 2.05, thus cut off will be about 462 less 2 and a bit. There should therefore be a tie-breaker for 459.

Hey just out of curiosity how did you come b this? (on 21-Jun there were 285 - thus 285/9 X 14 = 443)
As in 285/9?

 

[Dark_Night]

Hey just out of curiosity how did you come b this? (on 21-Jun there were 285 - thus 285/9 X 14 = 443)
As in 285/9?

on the 12th of June there were 0 left after the draw with 600+ and there are 9 days to the 21st of June when they published that there were 285. So 285/9 = +/-31 per day. We could also say 285 + 31*5 (5 days between 21 and 26 June). Hope it makes sense.

 

[NikSharma01]

Predictions for tomorrow i.e. July 10th Draw:

459-460 with 3350 ITAs
Or
457-458 with 3900 ITAs

I wish CIC may increase the ITA figures this time!! Good luck everybody..

 

[chirkut]

on the 12th of June there were 0 left after the draw with 600+ and there are 9 days to the 21st of June when they published that there were 285. So 285/9 = +/-31 per day. We could also say 285 + 31*5 (5 days between 21 and 26 June). Hope it makes sense.

Yup got it thanks!!!

 

[Folaroyal]

Hi All,

I am in the pool currently under Canadian Experience Class with 452 points. But i recently finished my work in Canada and moved out. I updated my country of residence and work history details with the end date to my Canadian job. Under "How much money will you bring to Canada "? I left as 0 earlier as I was working in Canada. But now that I am not.. do I need to update it or Can I leave it as it is ?

Thanks in Advance.

Well... you need to follow the guideline.... go with the one that applies to your situation... if none, then sure you MUST show PoF.

You don’t need to show that you have enough money to support yourself and your family if

• you’re applying under the Canadian Experience Class or
• you’re authorized to work in Canada and you have a valid job offer, even if you apply under the Federal Skilled Worker Program or the Federal Skilled Trades Program

 

[Mr_fabrizio]

You are fine by doing this ~ CIC knows what you doing

upload everything even it is not required

What if I don’t upload transcripts of my Masters degree? Any harm in that?

 

[Folaroyal]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 12:30 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 9) - Folaroyal: 505 | simranj72: 474 | sudhach91: 462 | Dkshitij18: 461 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461 | crjusuf: 461

• 455-460 (Total 34) – sarak1812: 460 | DreamITA: 460 | epema.kz: 460 | Ican2019: 460 | Rose1207: 459 | ExpressMan: 459 | Punitsingh: 459 | Kathy.m: 458 | SimAneja: 458 | hungta: 458 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | Kenneth89: 458 | Herlo: 458 | vivi153: 458 | Dhaval Trivedi: 458 | jollystripes: 458 | jjk505: 458 | atuls: 457 |#EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Angel1113: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455

• 450-454 (Total 37) - nadal87: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Teenz: 453 | Maya53: 453 | Uchyann: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | ArsheyaBegum: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | Chuaxin1: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450

• 445-449 (Total 61) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 | MarvelousMitz: 445

• 441-444 (Total 40) - Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441

• 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435

• Below 435 (Total 6) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Hnmmmm.... ... feels nice!
God did it!

 

[rajapanesar]

ਬੱਲਾ ਬੱਲਾ, ਏਨਾ ਫਾਲਤੂ ਸਕੋਰ।
ਇੰਨੇ ਚ ਤਾਂ 4 ਗਰੀਬ ਪਾਸ ਹੋ ਜਾਂਦੇ।

 

[Folaroyal]

ਬੱਲਾ ਬੱਲਾ, ਏਨਾ ਫਾਲਤੂ ਸਕੋਰ।
ਇੰਨੇ ਚ ਤਾਂ 4 ਗਰੀਬ ਪਾਸ ਹੋ ਜਾਂਦੇ।

Ooookkkkk..... soooo .. we are lost!!

 

[rajapanesar]

Ooookkkkk..... soooo .. we are lost!!

Haha,
I said, if you keep 465 out of your score, rest of the points could help 4 low scoring candidates to clear the cutoff.

Literally,
Wow wow, so much extra score.
It could help 4 poor souls to pass (clear).

 

[chirkut]

24 Hours to go for the next draw!