Ray of Hope - 113th Draw

[SithLord]

Please count me IN this time, I am hoping for the invite in next draw.

Like I said before, you will definitely make it next draw. Very good chance for 450.

 

[SithLord]

I dont know why I have the feeling that draw will happen next week. Also, looking at the trend, there is a high chance of draw next week. Rest, lets see. Hoping for the best!

I highly doubt there will be a draw next week

 

[WantToImmigrate]

Aww 435 brings back so many memories. I was stuck at that score for months because of stupid WES incorrect ECA.

I agree to that..

WES

is

stupid

 

[ghvijay]

Hello all,

I can possibly share my story to give hope to everyone out there. I was already over 41 when i decided to give this adventure a shot. Started at 413 points and was brought down to 403 point in mid of 2017. With no hope at all one fine day ontario sent me the noi and it all began to look possible. Fortunafely things started progressing all of a sudden and here i am in canada for almost a year now.

To summarize, it will happen to all, you just need to have faith and wait for your turn.....God bless all

Thank you for your inspiration. I appreciate ! I'm 36 and was thinking I'm late..

 

[WantToImmigrate]

I highly doubt there will be a draw next week

If you are an applicant with CRS around 435 or exactly 435 (like me), reading this will ruin your day. Writing it did mine.
When I started writing this post, it was in support for draw next week but now.. m just sad.

Hi

so this has been bugging me for some time now.. and I know someone on this forum must have thought of this, and I somehow can't find it..

According to pages - https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html; and https://www.cicnews.com/2018/11/can...nt-roles-for-express-entry-pnps-1111368.html; immigration targets have increased from 2018.

However, number of ITAs being sent out has decreased. Last year, it was 3900 this year they started with 3350. However, the trend has been that number of ITAs stay as they were previous year till April and increased in April till around September.

In 2018; 89,800 invites for an admission target of 74,900 (including FSW, FST, CEC). The same target number has risen to 81,400 this year. A rise of 4%. So on a similar trend 93,392 ITAs should be sent out this year. Considering 2 draws per month, 3892 invites sent out per draw. And they don't have only 2 per month, they have 3 sometimes.

Source of 89800 invites - https://www.canadavisa.com/express-entry-invitations-to-apply-issued.html

By 8th March 2018, Canada had issued 11500 ITAs, 15.3 percent of their admission target. By 8th March 2019, 17,850 have been issued, 21.9 percent.

So, it seems 440+ is going to be the trend this year with ITAs being rolled out around 3350-3600 each draw.

With above; we didn't have April 5, 2017; April 12, 2017; April 19, 2017; May 4, 2017; May 31, 2017; in 2018 and it seems unlikely this year too.

I'd be happy to see someone point a big flaw in above, and shed hope.
( If you are gonna shed hope; please DM me.. Until I get a copr, I don't want others to have hope.. just kidding )

 

[patrip91]

J

This is an encouraging story for those of us who are getting apprehensive.

For the next draw I am predicting 448 with a variance of -/+2. This is because from the recent score distribution, there was a surge in numbers of new 451 profiles early in February which further contributed to the effect of the 3 week gap draw. The score distribution for February 28 shows that the surge may have gone down and the back log created by the 3 week gap has been cleared. So scores should be on the downward trend hopefully.

Just to remind you all 451, 452, 453 and some 454s are still sitting in the systems since the last 8 weeks, plus some more will be added till the next draw. I highly suspect the cutoff going below 450.

 

[ghvijay]

If you are an applicant with CRS around 435 or exactly 435 (like me), reading this will ruin your day. Writing it did mine.
When I started writing this post, it was in support for draw next week but now.. m just sad.

Hi

so this has been bugging me for some time now.. and I know someone on this forum must have thought of this, and I somehow can't find it..

According to pages - https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html; and https://www.cicnews.com/2018/11/can...nt-roles-for-express-entry-pnps-1111368.html; immigration targets have increased from 2018.

However, number of ITAs being sent out has decreased. Last year, it was 3900 this year they started with 3350. However, the trend has been that number of ITAs stay as they were previous year till April and increased in April till around September.

In 2018; 89,800 invites for an admission target of 74,900 (including FSW, FST, CEC). The same target number has risen to 81,400 this year. A rise of 4%. So on a similar trend 93,392 ITAs should be sent out this year. Considering 2 draws per month, 3892 invites sent out per draw. And they don't have only 2 per month, they have 3 sometimes.

Source of 89800 invites - https://www.canadavisa.com/express-entry-invitations-to-apply-issued.html

By 8th March 2018, Canada had issued 11500 ITAs, 15.3 percent of their admission target. By 8th March 2019, 17,850 have been issued, 21.9 percent.

So, it seems 440+ is going to be the trend this year with ITAs being rolled out around 3350-3600 each draw.

With above; we didn't have April 5, 2017; April 12, 2017; April 19, 2017; May 4, 2017; May 31, 2017; in 2018 and it seems unlikely this year too.

I'd be happy to see someone point a big flaw in above, and shed hope.
( If you are gonna shed hope; please DM me.. Until I get a copr, I don't want others to have hope.. just kidding )

Well what I see from the previous data is that there absolutely NO DEFINITE PATTERN in sending ITA's .Frankly its unpredictable many times. We really don't know how many ITA applications are rejected and we don't know how many applications are cleared by WES each month ( Few of the months they are more fast whereas sometimes they are dragging a lot) We don't know how the ministry works ....Many factors to consider ..Hope for the best !

 

[SeniorStakes]

Ok here is some data:

Number of 450+ applications increased from 3365 on 14 Feb to 5930 (data released + 3350) on 28 Feb. This gives a clear evidence that rate of 450+ applications has gone down to 183 per day from 230+ in first two weeks of February. With the new rate, only 2560 slots should be taken by 450+ candidates on an "ongoing basis". However, we have a backlog too of around 800-1000 candidates i.e. folks sitting between 451 and 453 for the last five weeks.

If we take the decrease in applications as an indicator, the CRS cut-off in the next draw on 20 March should be around 450 +/- 1. After the next draw, the cut-off would certainly go below 450 and should stabilize between 445 and 450 for the next 3-4 months if CIC continues with 3350 every two weeks.

All the best everyone! Hope you all get what you desire!!

 

[LKRYA]

I highly doubt there will be a draw next week

what are my chances at 443

 

[ghvijay]

what are my chances at 443

I depends on number of ITA's ..For 3900/3750 intakes back to back the chances are high. I'm at 444..

 

[SeniorStakes]

Do you guys observe a pattern here?

2 weeks - 1 week - 3 weeks - 2 weeks - 1 week - 3 weeks - 2 weeks - __ week

There is a high probability of a draw next week if this trend continues.

What do you think?

Lol yes there is a pattern, but it's mere coincidence. CIC is on track to meet it's 2019 target with 3350 draws every two weeks.

Also, the application rejection rate has gone down because people are more aware of do's and dont's. Thus, the current pace of ITAs is inline with the target in 2019.

 

[SeniorStakes]

what are my chances at 443

A one-week draw anytime after two months or a usual two-week draw anytime after 4 months will sail you through.

I wish I am proven wrong and you all get through sooner.

 

[asmasaiyad]

Hi guys, my score is 435. I have my 4 years bachelor's degree evaluated through Wes. It is equivalent to bachelor's in Canada. In order to increase my score i am planning to do 1 year diploma course. I want to confirm, after completion of this course will my education be considered as two or more degrees? If yes, my score would be 468.

Please advise.

 

[NikSharma01]

Hi guys, my score is 435. I have my 4 years bachelor's degree evaluated through Wes. It is equivalent to bachelor's in Canada. In order to increase my score i am planning to do 1 year diploma course. I want to confirm, after completion of this course will my education be considered as two or more degrees? If yes, my score would be 468.

Please advise.

Yes! It will be considered as two or more degree programs and will give you additional more points. Its a good option, go for it and make your profile stronger with high CRS. However, you will have to evaluate the same from WES or another ECA organisations. Also Make sure that after an year you would be having the marks sheet and diploma certificate with you handy so that the sscanned copies would be submitted in your EE-Profile.

 

[asmasaiyad]

Yes! It will be considered as two or more degree programs and will give you additional more points. Its a good option, go for it and make your profile stronger with high CRS. However, you will have to evaluate the same from WES or another ECA organisations. Also Make sure that after an year you would be having the marks sheet and diploma certificate with you handy so that the sscanned copies would be submitted in your EE-Profile.

Ok thansk