Well, thanks for checking expectations

You are right in that the package was tracked until it left Japan (June 1st). After seeing the delay in the tracking portal and asking the post office they said Canada and US rarely update the status... would've been good to know that when I was choosing registered mail, I asked to confirm if I could track this internationally, and was told yes.
I had good experiences using registered mail from here to US and Spain. The most common Express mail in Japan is EMS, which has been suspended since the state of emergency was raised. We're still on that state of emergency and EMS is still suspended...
Seems we're crossing the 1 month mark... As long as it arrives, we're good. We're planning to move on April-May 2022, so I'm hoping the package just arrived a bit late and not fallen from the Canada Post truck.
Perhaps I can call in a week or two to see if there is any way to confirm it arrived...