Unless you have some additional information I don't, I wouldn't be that optimistic. Looking at the previous trends, I believe it will be something like:
459 -> 453-454 -> 451-452 -> 1 week pause
I really see no way it can breach 450 in just 2 draws. 3 draws - maybe. 4 draws - most definitely. But 2 - no way.
No additional information that isn't available in public domain. The rationale was simple - whenever there have been 2 back-to-back draws, the score in the 2nd draw has fallen drastically because the pool did not have enough time to fill up with high scoring applicants. If February has 3 back-to-back draws AND given that the 1st draw itself was a 'lowly' 459, the 3rd draw is likely to have a sub-450 cutoff.
Case in point - March 2015.
There was nearly 1 month delay between the last Feb draw and the first March draw. That draw happened on the 3rd Friday of March with a cutoff of 481 followed immediately by a draw on the 4th Friday with a cutoff of 453. Something similar happened in April as well. And at various other points of time through 2015. But all of those were just 2 back-to-back draws.
In Jan '16, we had a delay between the 1st draw and 2 back-to-back draws. That last draw's cutoff fell to 451. If there are 3 back-to-back draws in Feb, the cutoff is likely to breach the 450 mark.
No additional information that isn't available in public domain. The rationale was simple - whenever there have been 2 back-to-back draws, the score in the 2nd draw has fallen drastically because the pool did not have enough time to fill up with high scoring applicants. If February has 3 back-to-back draws AND given that the 1st draw itself was a 'lowly' 459, the 3rd draw is likely to have a sub-450 cutoff.
Case in point - March 2015.
There was nearly 1 month delay between the last Feb draw and the first March draw. That draw happened on the 3rd Friday of March with a cutoff of 481 followed immediately by a draw on the 4th Friday with a cutoff of 453. Something similar happened in April as well. And at various other points of time through 2015. But all of those were just 2 back-to-back draws.
In Jan '16, we had a delay between the 1st draw and 2 back-to-back draws. That last draw's cutoff fell to 451. If there are 3 back-to-back draws in Feb, the cutoff is likely to breach the 450 mark.
After 2 years of beating the bushes, finally an ITA. Such a sweet feeling. Thank you everyone who post stuff and make this forum a great reference guide. It would simply be very difficult without you.
Even if the score falls, I can't see it free-falling - the problem is that there's a bunch of people sitting in the 440's - so even if it falls a few points, you have a 12-month backlog of people sitting in that range that have waited for an ITA (where at most someone in the 450's had to wait a few months). Given that CIC seems to target 1500 people, my guess is you'll see it fall 1-2 points at a time if/when it goes below 450 - just due to the backlog of people there. I would also expect that the lower the score, the more people are that tier (simply because it takes fewer qualifications to get a lower score). I could see it falling to 440 over the next 12 months, but can't see it going below that.
FWIW, my CRS score is 430 and I took the PT from OINP - unless CIC changes things, I can't see the score getting to 430 in 2016. 445, that I could see, but I'd bet $20 we won't even see 440 in 2016 (barring CIC making a substantial change, going to 3 draws regularly, and even then I question it).
would you please look into the query which I have posted?
