Are processing times conservative estimates?

[ashleygf]

The outland processing times for spousal sponsorship currently listed are between 11-16 months in the States. I'm just wondering if that's average or worst case scenario?

 

[Sweden]

it's more complicated than that!
It's the time it takes to process 80% of the applications. So you might have 20% processed in 4 months... then after 6 months it might go up to 35%, etc - until they reach 80% of the applications.
So for a straightforward case, with all documents submitted, it can be less than 10 months.
there is an Ottawa spreadsheet - look for a user name Amikety, I think she has it in her signature - it will give you a better idea.
Good luck,
Sweden

 

[amikety]

Hi there!

You can also look at the Open Data project. It has a ton of information and includes the breakdown on time lines.

http://www.data.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=5175A6F0-1&xsl=datacataloguerecord&metaxsl=datacataloguerecord&formid=427337D0-7C36-4FED-8428-C6A63F8C19B3

People who applied in late August and September are starting to get PPR for Americans. Some take longer than others, for various reasons. I've even read a post by a women whose application fell through the cracks. However, I suspect (but have no proof) that the Ottawa timeframe includes the non-American applicants. Occasionally, Ottawa takes on a file for another VO. We have people from the Islamabad and Beirut VOs being processed at Ottawa. I don't know about Beirut, but Islamabad is one of the longest VOs and even if they go through Ottawa, they still take just as long as their original VO... for some reason. My point is, I think that skews the numbers some too.

When you look at the Spreadsheet for Ottawa, keep in mind many people never update their status. If you see someone from January 2011 without PPR/COPR, chances are the user hasn't been back

 

[gsize]

The outland processing times for spousal sponsorship currently listed are between 11-16 months in the States. I'm just wondering if that's average or worst case scenario?

definately not a worst case scenario ???

 

[amikety]

definately not a worst case scenario ???

Don't go around scaring all the newbies! Let her get to 25 posts first

*hugs* Poor gsize. Been through more than one person ever should!

 

[Rob_TO]

Just to add to Sweden's answer, the technical way to state the time of X months on CIC website is: 80% of cases were completed in X month or less.

So basically the time stated is a worst-case scenario for 80% of applications. Most people get the "or less" time, but some people unfortunately fall outside the 80% and get times way over what's stated.

For a better indication of the "average" time from your visa office, it's better IMO to look at the 50% stats which you can see by downloading the Open Data excel sheet amikety linked to above.