The FSW-Outland PPR rain thread: trends and speculation

[dankboi]

Looks like the rain has started back again.

yes boss,
thanks for the bump, the thread popped up to surface again. : -D

 

[neil_user]

yes boss,
thanks for the bump, the thread popped up to surface again. : -D

I would say its still a trickle, did anything happen today?

 

[dankboi]

I would say its still a trickle, did anything happen today?

according to immitracker, 2 outland ppr's so far, but there's a constant amount of updates to fsw and pnp apps

 

[mornaz]

Looks like the rain has started back again.

nah man, it is still farts. at least from Ottawa.

 

[MortyC137]

myimmitracker.com samples candidates irrespective of their PPR status, so it's a better way of measuring precipitation than Facebook and the like.

Here are the new PPRs issued this week and reported on myimmitracker:
AOR Feb 16, 2020
AOR May 13, 2020
AOR Sep 19, 2020
AOR Oct 17, 2020
AOR Oct 31, 2020
AOR Nov 1, 2020

Not looking great for late 2019 / early 2020. It could be because they are finalizing them randomly for the entire 2019 - 2020 period. Sep - Nov 2020 is overrepresented because there are more unfinalized applications in that period.

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, they issued PPR for about 1.2% of the 2020 applicant pool this week. If they keep the same pace, and assuming they finalize applications in a random order like they did this week, applicants who got their AOR in 2020 have a 37% chance of getting their PPR by July.

 

[mornaz]

myimmitracker.com samples candidates irrespective of their PPR status, so it's a better way of measuring precipitation than Facebook and the like.

Here are the new PPRs issued this week and reported on myimmitracker:
AOR Feb 16, 2020
AOR May 13, 2020
AOR Sep 19, 2020
AOR Oct 17, 2020
AOR Oct 31, 2020
AOR Nov 1, 2020

Not looking great for late 2019 / early 2020. It could be because they are finalizing them randomly for the entire 2019 - 2020 period. Sep - Nov 2020 is overrepresented because there are more unfinalized applications in that period.

According to my back-of-the-envelope calculation, they issued PPR for about 1.2% of the applicant pool this week. If they keep the same pace, and assuming they finalize applications in any order like they did this week, applicants who got their AOR in 2020 have a 37% chance of getting their PPR by July. 97% chance by the end of this year.

You are not taking the VO into consideration. Most of these folks were VO Paris and London.
The late 2019 and early 2020 challenge is mostly with Ottawa. When Ottawa springs to action, those files will be cleared too.

 

[MortyC137]

You are not taking the VO into consideration. Most of these folks were VO Paris and London.
The late 2019 and early 2020 challenge is mostly with Ottawa. When Ottawa springs to action, those files will be cleared too.

I too hope that Ottawa goes faster, and when it does, I will happily update my estimate.
In the meantime, all I can do is extrapolate this week's PPR rate and it is clear that it is not raining PPRs yet.

 

[hydrizxcv]

You are not taking the VO into consideration. Most of these folks were VO Paris and London.
The late 2019 and early 2020 challenge is mostly with Ottawa. When Ottawa springs to action, those files will be cleared too.

Any idea about Montreal VO? How quick is it? Can I (Nov 2020, FSW-O, USA) expect a PPR?

 

[mornaz]

Any idea about Montreal VO? How quick is it? Can I (Nov 2020, FSW-O, USA) expect a PPR?

All of the offices inside Canada suffer the same pain of pandemic policy. However, Montreal has its plate less full in comparison to Ottawa.

 

[quelash13]

Can someone speculate for SGVO? It's eerily silent and hard to find many applicants being processed there.

 

[auroraaustralis]

My application is in Ottawa. AOR Feb 2020. I just got a ghost update yesterday, it’s good to see some movement at last!

 

[zac0999]

Can someone speculate for SGVO? It's eerily silent and hard to find many applicants being processed there.

I'm also tracking PPRs from Asian VOs. It seems almost dead silence from SG/ND/HK, except one PPR from Manila VO earlier.

 

[neil_user]

My application is in Ottawa. AOR Feb 2020. I just got a ghost update yesterday, it’s good to see some movement at last!

did you receive an email or on CIC portal?

 

[quelash13]

I'm also tracking PPRs from Asian VOs. It seems almost dead silence from SG/ND/HK, except one PPR from Manila VO earlier.

Everyone is getting the same generic reply from SGVO. How come these LVOs aren't issuing PPRs at the same rate as others? Big question mark.

 

[hchchoi]

I just called IRCC and received an interesting update. My eligibility and security have still not started (AOR Feb 21), but my file was moved to Edmonton (which was the third secondary office according to my last set of notes) and then the secondary office associated with the file right now is Montreal. Anyone have a similar experience?