Quebec Skilled Worker Federal Stage (After CSQ)

[Immstu]

Do we have any clue when this bright Québec government will declare 2020 quotas? There left 2 months...

My cousin got conflicting opinion from two lawyers - One said quota was released at beginning of year and that quota is taking care of pre July 2019 files, other one said quota not released yet. I couldn't find anything online for quota confirmation for this year.

 

[aeya]

Do we have any clue when this bright Québec government will declare 2020 quotas? There left 2 months...

The quota is released before October 31st.

 

[lost_soul]

I think this article is the answer to why we haven't received our AOR. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/immigration-quebec-ottawa-1.5035880

This article is almost 2 years old, prior to Bill 9. I think what this article refers to is Bill 9 applicants, not to current situation...

 

[aeya]

This article is almost 2 years old, prior to Bill 9. I think what this article refers to is Bill 9 applicants, not to current situation...

This article is from February last year and it makes sense with not delivery of AOR's at the Federal stage since July 2019.

 

[rutils]

See till 2017 yearly quota hovered around 25 K and 10-20% rollover was there year on year. I guess 2018 and 2019 figures were further reduced by Caq government. Current pile up without AOR from July 2019 is approximately 30k. If there's an analytics person on board, they can maybe project a probable forecasting figure if 2020 quota is released in next few weeks. I guess total quota maybe around 20-22k for this year. Lot of assumptions but maybe someone can derive a probability.

I wish they release 30k quota. I don't see a reason for holding after issuing CSQ.

 

[Immstu]

I wish they release 30k quota. I don't see a reason for holding after issuing CSQ.

I wish the same but problem is pile up year on year since 2016. Unfortunately I don't foresee any of post 2019 July files getting an AOR before mid next year. Just now my friend confirmed that quota release is for next year and it makes sense. Going by him quota announced last year is still taking care of pre July 2019 files.

 

[Kostas]

So according to this:
https://www.cicnews.com/2019/10/quebec-could-admit-up-to-44500-new-permanent-residents-in-2020-1013071.html/amp

The quota for 2020 was 26000 for QSW and as it seems it covered applications till July 2019, right?

 

[lost_soul]

I am trying to make and share a table of estimates and scenarios based on probabilities etc. Before doing that though, we need the most accurate data possible. Can you guys help me gather the most accurate/trustable numbers please?

So far this is the best source of quota estimates info I have found. It seems these tables have been presented by the CAQ itself in February 2020 at the National Assembly. https://www.immigration.ca/quebec-to-increase-immigration-levels-to-44500-in-2020 . This source says CAQ presented the following numbers to the Assembly in February 2020:

Total Immigration quota
- 2019 : 40k
- 2020 : 44k
Economic Immigration quota
- 2019 : 23k
- 2020 : 26k

Now, as I am doing my scenario analysis, even with those nice numbers, I keep going back to a 'circular reference' or missing info:
did Quebec process any new files on their 'unprocessed applications' pile in 2020? I have seen people getting their PRs in 2020, but from what I am reading, not a single person received an AOR since July 2019.
To me, it means that since July 2019, Quebec has decided to not look at any file that wasn't already accepted. Even with the roll over from previous years, some people should have gotten an AOR in 2020, just to fill the 2020 quota, no matter what the quota is.
My conclusion is that since July 2019, Quebec decided to not process/accept anyone. As if the quota was practically 0 and they will not accept any new immigration file. If there was indeed a quota, at least 1 or 2 people should have gotten an AOR since July 2019. The only explanation for no AORs in 2020 is they stopped accepting new immigrants altogether.
Can anyone confirm my logic?

 

[dorm_ca]

They could be revamping the system to be online and you know how slow a change like that can be. IMHO, they wouldn't be issuing CSQs if they weren't planning on onboarding more people. Lets see

 

[aeya]

I am trying to make and share a table of estimates and scenarios based on probabilities etc. Before doing that though, we need the most accurate data possible. Can you guys help me gather the most accurate/trustable numbers please?

So far this is the best source of quota estimates info I have found. It seems these tables have been presented by the CAQ itself in February 2020 at the National Assembly. https://www.immigration.ca/quebec-to-increase-immigration-levels-to-44500-in-2020 . This source says CAQ presented the following numbers to the Assembly in February 2020:

Total Immigration quota
- 2019 : 40k
- 2020 : 44k
Economic Immigration quota
- 2019 : 23k
- 2020 : 26k

Now, as I am doing my scenario analysis, even with those nice numbers, I keep going back to a 'circular reference' or missing info:
did Quebec process any new files on their 'unprocessed applications' pile in 2020? I have seen people getting their PRs in 2020, but from what I am reading, not a single person received an AOR since July 2019.
To me, it means that since July 2019, Quebec has decided to not look at any file that wasn't already accepted. Even with the roll over from previous years, some people should have gotten an AOR in 2020, just to fill the 2020 quota, no matter what the quota is.
My conclusion is that since July 2019, Quebec decided to not process/accept anyone. As if the quota was practically 0 and they will not accept any new immigration file. If there was indeed a quota, at least 1 or 2 people should have gotten an AOR since July 2019. The only explanation for no AORs in 2020 is they stopped accepting new immigrants altogether.
Can anyone confirm my logic?

The delay is for the Economic Immigration quota. For the rest of the immigration quota, a least for sponsorship, they are continued issuing the AOR's.

 

[Andremory87]

There is actually a good theory out there: IRCC wants to ensure that the same agents treat all provincial applications (to increase efficiency). Note that all PNP applications take 6 months, from AOR to PPR. Quebec is the only exception, with a delay of 23 months.

Presumably, what the government is trying to do is to make Quebec's process last 6 months, from AOR to PPR. This would allow a same agent to treat a Quebec and a PNP application with the same speed, once the file has been opened. So that would explain why they are delaying the process of opening files—because they would want to streamline all PNP/Quebec to use the same timetable. It makes sense from an operational point of view.

If this theory is correct, we should be getting the next batch of AORs around month 17 after the application (23-6=17). So the July 2019 ppl should be getting their AOR in January 2021; the August 2019 in February 2021, etc. And PPR should follow 6 months after AOR

Disclaimer: this is just a conjecture, and we will know soon if it's true. But it might also be wrong—I am just rationalizing a probable scenario inside IRCC

 

[lost_soul]

Ok so a couple of things:
1) Andremory: I really wish your theory were true. However, that assumes Quebec wants to make their PR process faster. As of today, I've always thought and assumed they make it much much slower to prevent immigrants from coming to this province in the first place (due to nationalism) - and to be able to check if the immigrant is actually staying in QC for those 1-2 years during processing to be more 'selective'. I never knew/thought the longer processing vs other provinces was a matter operational efficiency. If that is the case, then my conception of productivity just hit a new low - I didn't know it was possible to be this incompetent.

2) After reading more, it does seem like AORs have indeed been issued after July 2019. They are just super super rare and officers are just super super slow.

3) After speaking with my lawyer in length this morning, he announced 2 things
1- There is a reform/change coming up very soon on QC side that will be announced early November - so let's just be patient and see what that is.
2- He is very convinced that the very slow processing time is not due to any racist conspiracy or anything. Those officers are uneducated, stupid, lazy AF, and now they are working from home so there is no one to even supervise them. They have essentially just stopped working due to incredible laziness. He and his 'lobby' have tried to contact MIFI many many time asking concretes questions like "what % of officers are working from home?", "How many applications are you processing in a day on average?" - very very basic simple questions and MIFI would just never give a concrete answer. The only explanation left is just incompetency and pure laziness and MIFI is covering that up.

I would thus probably suggest to stop thinking too much about why/scenarios etc, and wait for the reform/changes coming up which will most likely bring more clarity for everyone. I am holding off on sending my PR application until then and will try to move to Ontario in the mean time.

 

[bleachedaxe]

Ok so a couple of things:
1) Andremory: I really wish your theory were true. However, that assumes Quebec wants to make their PR process faster. As of today, I've always thought and assumed they make it much much slower to prevent immigrants from coming to this province in the first place (due to nationalism) - and to be able to check if the immigrant is actually staying in QC for those 1-2 years during processing to be more 'selective'. I never knew/thought the longer processing vs other provinces was a matter operational efficiency. If that is the case, then my conception of productivity just hit a new low - I didn't know it was possible to be this incompetent.

2) After reading more, it does seem like AORs have indeed been issued after July 2019. They are just super super rare and officers are just super super slow.

3) After speaking with my lawyer in length this morning, he announced 2 things
1- There is a reform/change coming up very soon on QC side that will be announced early November - so let's just be patient and see what that is.
2- He is very convinced that the very slow processing time is not due to any racist conspiracy or anything. Those officers are uneducated, stupid, lazy AF, and now they are working from home so there is no one to even supervise them. They have essentially just stopped working due to incredible laziness. He and his 'lobby' have tried to contact MIFI many many time asking concretes questions like "what % of officers are working from home?", "How many applications are you processing in a day on average?" - very very basic simple questions and MIFI would just never give a concrete answer. The only explanation left is just incompetency and pure laziness and MIFI is covering that up.

I would thus probably suggest to stop thinking too much about why/scenarios etc, and wait for the reform/changes coming up which will most likely bring more clarity for everyone. I am holding off on sending my PR application until then and will try to move to Ontario in the mean time.

What's the source of these reforms? Did your lawyer provide any or is he just assuming stuff?

 

[Kostas]

Well, when it comes from immigration consultants, it's not just assumptions. They have their network and information from inside.
There always exists the possibility not to be accurate, but they are closer to reality than us.

 

[Montreal_grad_student]

According to IRCC data on "Admissions of English-Speaking Permanent Residents within Quebec by Immigration Category" there were 8300 PRs issued under "economic" immigrant category. So far in 2020 there have only been 2,040 issued. Thoughts on what this means?

https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/f7e5498e-0ad8-4417-85c9-9b8aff9b9eda

Where are people getting their numbers? The above link shows only around 8000 PRs per year under the economic category (QSWP). But these are also "English speaking" applicants. The definition of that is in the notes of the spreadsheet.