Ray of Hope 63rd Draw

[berman]

411. Is there a chance?

 

[fahadsheikh]

With this score its 385 and if it is clb9 then it would be 417. And thank you so much for the encouraging words

385 is fairly reasonable score in current circumstances. Go ahead and create your profile. You never know when luck knocks the door, and you might not even need another IELTS.

 

[BillHyatt]

I think future draws may look like this:

May = 2/3 Draws (1,3,5)
June = 2/3 Draws (2,3,5)
July = 3 Draws (2,4,5)
August = 3 Draws (2,3,5)
Sep = 2 Draws (3,5)
Oct = 2 Draws (2,4)
Nov = 3 Draws (1,3,4)
Dec = 2 Draws (2,4)

In ( ) is the week of that month.
If May has 3 draws June might have only 2

Total Estimated Draws remaining = 18

For OINP only:

- Majority of Applications from April/May will be processed by the end of next week while Nominations will be distributed possibly between 2nd June and 10th June.

- The next date for NOI is predicted to be 10th June once majority of Nominations are issued.

- OINP is processing around 40-50 Applications per week and issues around 350-400 NOI each month.

- OINP is working 24/7 to improve systems and bringing processing time to 14 Days for 80% applications in the future.

 

[fahadsheikh]

I think future draws may look like this:

May = 2/3 Draws (1,3,5)
June = 2/3 Draws (2,3,5)
July = 3 Draws (2,4,5)
August = 3 Draws (2,3,5)
Sep = 2 Draws (3,5)
Oct = 2 Draws (2,4)
Nov = 3 Draws (1,3,4)
Dec = 2 Draws (2,4)

In ( ) is the week of that month.
If May has 3 draws June might have only 2

Total Estimated Draws remaining = 18

For OINP only:

- Majority of Applications from April/May will be processed by the end of next week while Nominations will be distributed possibly between 2nd June and 10th June.

- The next date for NOI is predicted to be 10th June once majority of Nominations are issued.

- OINP is processing around 40-50 Applications per week and issues around 350-400 NOI each month.

- OINP is working 24/7 to improve systems and bringing processing time to 14 Days for 80% applications in the future.

I am inclined to agree with your draw calculations. 3 draws in any month, even once, will bring lots of joys to everyone in here above 380. A consecutive draw will be like cherry on the cake!

 

[alfred0]

So no draw this week (as expected), what's your score and invite count prediction for the next week guys and gals? Don't forget the fact that the score dropped by 8 points last week even though the draw was held after a 2 week gap so it could still fall next week.

My guess: 407 (around 3800 invites)

My guess would be 409, according to this graph, there is an average of 6 points dropping in each draw

 

[canada_dreamer]

This thread looks quite busy this time around (similar to 61st draw). This could be an indication that more people have joined the pool than average since the last draw. We need to get another spreadsheet going to see where everyone stands.

 

[unicorns]

This thread looks quite busy this time around (similar to 61st draw). This could be an indication that more people have joined the pool than average since the last draw. We need to get another spreadsheet going to see where everyone stands.

good idea

 

[andieangel]

My guess would be 409, according to this graph, there is an average of 6 points dropping in each draw

Average is 6 points? Are you sure your calculator is working properly?

 

[iamtheniravp]

411. Is there a chance?

I m at 411 too. I am sure we are in. And eventually everyone!!

 

[berman]

I m at 411 too. I am sure we are in. And eventually everyone!!

Let's hope, my score-bro! Hopefully the draw will happen very soon.

 

[pessacanada]

Let's hope, my score-bro! Hopefully the draw will happen very soon.

Next one is yours my friends, and of course soon or later one of those draws will be mine and my friends with the CRS around 380 )))

 

[Yogesh96]

Dear potential (would be) invitees,

I earlier posted on this forum that I am standing at 428 and was still worrying what would be the odds of getting an ITA.. but based on all other comments from people and cic's previous draws, I would say there must be an average difference of 8 points for the next draw from the last one. Either 423 or 407! Lets hope for the best! As it is the Ray of hope.

Thanks

 

[Rety]

Let's hope, my score-bro! Hopefully the draw will happen very soon.

U will get it for sure .... 411 is good score .... I don't think there are more left with 415 or plus ...

 

[tjsecondtry]

U will get it for sure .... 411 is good score .... I don't think there are more left with 415 or plus ...

The score will drop to 411, I'm sure. But saying there aren't any more left with 415 or more is ignoring the 176 per day over 430 that seem to join after the second to last draw, before the last statistics. There's no solid reason to think that number would just drop to 0.

 

[abhishek_89]

So no draw this week (as expected), what's your score and invite count prediction for the next week guys and gals? Don't forget the fact that the score dropped by 8 points last week even though the draw was held after a 2 week gap so it could still fall next week.

My guess: 407 (around 3800 invites)

There is a difference between last week's draw where the points fell from 423 to 415 and the next one where you expect it to fall from 415 to 407..
The difference is that on April 19th everybody in the range 415-422 were flushed out from the system, only new entrants who created profiles in the last 1 month existed on May 17th between 415 and 422.. Unfortunately that's not the case for folks below 415 (407-414), they have been accumulating there from Jan 2015..