I am in the EE pool with a CRS score of 494 points and honestly started to became worried about my chances with the current trend of favouring inland and PNP applicants.
So I decided to share with you my thoughts about the future of all-program FSW draws.
Assumptions:
I am assuming that the cut-off score get increased by 1.5~2 points for each month the draws do not happen. For example, the cut-off of the last draw before the COVID outbreak was 471 in March 2020 and when the draws were resumed in July 2020 the cut-off went up to 478 (7 point increase in 3-4 months).
The number of bi-weekly invitations: 5000, they will not likely increase it even they cleared the backlog, because it is limited by their processing capacity.
The cut-off score will come down by 1 point per month once the draws resume (less than the rate of increase, as there are many people waiting for draws to score higher results in language tests)
Scenarios:
Best-case scenario: the IRCC will resume the draws after they clear a fair amount of the backlog, and I believe that this will not happen before mid-2022, and the cut-off score will be around 506 (468 + 19 months x 2 points)
Grey scenario: the IRCC will resume the draws after they clear a considerable amount of the backlog, and I believe that this will not happen before Jan-2023, and the cut-off score will be around 518 (468 + 25 months x 2 points)
Worst-case scenario: IRCC could cancel the whole FWS program and introduce a new program in 2023.
Finally, I hope that all of my assumptions and scenarios are wrong and to have an all-program draw on next Wednesday.
A vague statement was given when some ircc representatives along with immigration lawyers had a conference a few weeks back. Their response was next year they wouldn't give much focus on inland as they did during the 2020-2021.
I am in the EE pool with a CRS score of 494 points and honestly started to became worried about my chances with the current trend of favouring inland and PNP applicants.
So I decided to share with you my thoughts about the future of all-program FSW draws.
Assumptions:
I am assuming that the cut-off score get increased by 1.5~2 points for each month the draws do not happen. For example, the cut-off of the last draw before the COVID outbreak was 471 in March 2020 and when the draws were resumed in July 2020 the cut-off went up to 478 (7 point increase in 3-4 months).
The number of bi-weekly invitations: 5000, they will not likely increase it even they cleared the backlog, because it is limited by their processing capacity.
The cut-off score will come down by 1 point per month once the draws resume (less than the rate of increase, as there are many people waiting for draws to score higher results in language tests)
Scenarios:
Best-case scenario: the IRCC will resume the draws after they clear a fair amount of the backlog, and I believe that this will not happen before mid-2022, and the cut-off score will be around 506 (468 + 19 months x 2 points)
Grey scenario: the IRCC will resume the draws after they clear a considerable amount of the backlog, and I believe that this will not happen before Jan-2023, and the cut-off score will be around 518 (468 + 25 months x 2 points)
Worst-case scenario: IRCC could cancel the whole FWS program and introduce a new program in 2023.
Finally, I hope that all of my assumptions and scenarios are wrong and to have an all-program draw on next Wednesday.
I am aware of the thread that you mentioned but people there discussing also other things like their profile, application status and other immigration options. I hope that discussion here try to address three questions only:
1- Will the FSW draws be resumed again?
2- When this could happen?
3- What could be the expected cut-off score?
I wish that discussions about these questions could give depressed people like me a ray of hope.
I am aware of the thread that you mentioned but people there discussing also other things like their profile, application status and other immigration options. I hope that discussion here try to address three questions only:
1- Will the FSW draws be resumed again?
2- When this could happen?
3- What could be the expected cut-off score?
I wish that discussions about these questions could give depressed people like me a ray of hope.
Nobody knows buddy, it doesn't matter how many times you ask this question. People on this forum simply do not know. You can call IRCC or tweet them to get an answer.
