Apply for OINP as you cant predict the trend of the cut off. Take what you get and dont think about the cost of $1500 for the PNP application. If you dont take the OINP and the scores dont drop, you will have none of it.
All that makes the difference is $1500. Consider it like a life insurance and go for it. You'll have 4 to 6 months to go for direct ita if that happens.
430 is a risky range, not saying not possible but being smart is key. If you have been waiting for a long long time for every draw, and you invested a lot of time, money and energy on EE application, I can imagine the frustration you have already!
If I were you, I would pick OINP and pay the $1500. With the additional 600 points, at least you're guaranteed ITA (soon or later). Nothing feels better than erasing all the fears and exactly knowing and confirming your destination. Best of luck!