19th Draw- Any Guessing

[bestofluck]

Well it will be 21 days this friday for the 19th friday. My guess is the scores might go up with a few pints but than will come down in following draws

19th Draw 23rd October ---- 454
20th draw 06 th Nov ---448
21st Draw 20th Nov ----441
22nd Draw 04th Dec ---- 440
23rd Draw 18th Dec -----438

 

[jha190]

Question: I am in the pool on 468 points, hoping for ITA next draw. I am on IEC which expires Nov 21st. I was told to submit a open work permit application to gain implied status. Do I need an ITA before I do this? As of this Wednesday it will be 30days left on my Visa, which I was told is the deadline for applying for an open work permit. Could anyone please give me advice? What would you recommend in my position?

 

[Lammawitch]

Question: I am in the pool on 468 points, hoping for ITA next draw. I am on IEC which expires Nov 21st. I was told to submit a open work permit application to gain implied status. Do I need an ITA before I do this? As of this Wednesday it will be 30days left on my Visa, which I was told is the deadline for applying for an open work permit. Could anyone please give me advice? What would you recommend in my position?

Answered on the other thread.

 

[ETE]

Answered on the other thread.

I think scores will still hover around 450 until next year.

 

[mead]

Well it will be 21 days this friday for the 19th friday. My guess is the scores might go up with a few pints but than will come down in following draws

19th Draw 23rd October ---- 454
20th draw 06 th Nov ---448
21st Draw 20th Nov ----441
22nd Draw 04th Dec ---- 440
23rd Draw 18th Dec -----438

i dont think it will happen this weekend but who knows. I think new government will need time and realistically may not have enough time. Immigration Minister has to give instructions we dont know when new minister would be appointed

 

[ETE]

i dont think it will happen this weekend but who knows. I think new government will need time and realistically may not have enough time. Immigration Minister has to give instructions we dont know when new minister would be appointed

Agreed with you for once . I think now they will focus on processing those who have been issued ITA. Well let's see how it goes.

 

[mead]

Agreed with you for once . I think now they will focus on processing those who have been issued ITA. Well let's see how it goes.

I wish that they do the draw this Friday. this uncertainty is very frustrating. first will the draw happen and second will the cut off be low enough.

 

[bestofluck]

Why would there be no Draw? What has new or old Govt has to do with Draw? The process happens as it is planned until further changes are done which will take a long time for them make any changes in Express Entry.

Till than the things would go smooth.

Do not speculate Negative things, No govt will make changes which will affect anyone of us in the pool. The Scores will drop down though not much but somewhere below 450 in the next couple of months.

 

[Dennia]

Justin announces his cabinet ministers on Nov 4. Eventhough Chris Alexander is in power until the new team takes over, Chris has lost his election and I don't think he is going to encourage any more draws, his team will be busy passing things on to the new members. My forecast is max two more draws after Nov 4, one in November & one in December. U guys might actually get a suprise treat frm the new govt, with low CRS score

 

[bestofluck]

Why Would Chris not make any draws? In fact he would opt to make 2 more draws and bring the scores to 440 ! Anyone leaving would prefer to please the applicants and leave a positive message. See there might be a Draw on 23rd and 30th! Why would Chris not give a gift of low scores !

 

[quarko]

There are two possibilities:
1. EE system is dependent on the government. I mean, if it requires some kinds of reviews of each applicant, signatures of higher-ups, etc. etc.
2. EE system is fully separated from the government, and they only supply each other some kinds of regulations and reports.

In first case scenario - there is a big chance that there will be no draws for 2-3 weeks or even a month. They will need to assign people to operate this process, maybe even review it's internals, and all this takes time and money. However, this also means some changes (be it good or bad) after the draws continue. New employees could be faster/slower than old ones, or could decide to make draws happen more often but with less people in each, and so on.

In second case, this 3 week delay is a mere statistical error which will get corrected over time by itself. In this case, I believe that (my personal opinion, no strong arguments) the score will drop but that will happen much slower than other people anticipate. We could see something like 460 - 453 - 450 - 449 - 449 - 448, etc. The reason I believe it is an actual score statistics: http://i.imgur.com/4MqdAQz.jpg . The chart is a bit outdated, but you can notice how strong the CRS 450 limit is. I guess that amount of people at each mark grows exponentially and if we combine all the influx of people with scores of 450+ over the 2 weeks, we would get very close to 1500 persons, that is, to the draw count. That would mean, that the 449 score alone could house 500 or more people. So, it will slowly drop, but that will happen much slower than we hope.

 

[bestofluck]

There are two possibilities:
1. EE system is dependent on the government. I mean, if it requires some kinds of reviews of each applicant, signatures of higher-ups, etc. etc.
2. EE system is fully separated from the government, and they only supply each other some kinds of regulations and reports.

In first case scenario - there is a big chance that there will be no draws for 2-3 weeks or even a month. They will need to assign people to operate this process, maybe even review it's internals, and all this takes time and money. However, this also means some changes (be it good or bad) after the draws continue. New employees could be faster/slower than old ones, or could decide to make draws happen more often but with less people in each, and so on.

In second case, this 3 week delay is a mere statistical error which will get corrected over time by itself. In this case, I believe that (my personal opinion, no strong arguments) the score will drop but that will happen much slower than other people anticipate. We could see something like 460 - 453 - 450 - 449 - 449 - 448, etc. The reason I believe it is an actual score statistics: http://i.imgur.com/4MqdAQz.jpg . The chart is a bit outdated, but you can notice how strong the CRS 450 limit is. I guess that amount of people at each mark grows exponentially and if we combine all the influx of people with scores of 450+ over the 2 weeks, we would get very close to 1500 persons, that is, to the draw count. That would mean, that the 449 score alone could house 500 or more people. So, it will slowly drop, but that will happen much slower than we hope.

Why would the staff change? Chris wont take them with him. The whole process will be done as it is done this time, IF any change would take place they would make it only after One year of EE is completed. The draws have taken 21 days at many instances and even more , so nothing to worry. Just that a Draw is one week late dosent mean some drastic changes would be made. Its not easy to amend a big system like this! things take time

 

[mead]

Why would there be no Draw? What has new or old Govt has to do with Draw? The process happens as it is planned until further changes are done which will take a long time for them make any changes in Express Entry.

Till than the things would go smooth.

Do not speculate Negative things, No govt will make changes which will affect anyone of us in the pool. The Scores will drop down though not much but somewhere below 450 in the next couple of months.

well Ministral instructions are required for the draws. Since there is no Immigration minister I assumed there wont be any more draws till they appoint new Immigration minister which will happen on 4th Nov . Again its my assumption.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/mi/

 

[quarko]

Why would the staff change? Chris wont take them with him. The whole process will be done as it is done this time, IF any change would take place they would make it only after One year of EE is completed. The draws have taken 21 days at many instances and even more , so nothing to worry. Just that a Draw is one week late dosent mean some drastic changes would be made. Its not easy to amend a big system like this! things take time

My wife worked in a ministry for some time. The month the minister changed, half of the staff changed too. However, that could be linked to corruption in my country, as people started pushing their relatives to take steal those jobs. I really hope corruption is not that bad in Canada.

 

[bestofluck]

My wife worked in a ministry for some time. The month the minister changed, half of the staff changed too. However, that could be linked to corruption in my country, as people started pushing their relatives to take steal those jobs. I really hope corruption is not that bad in Canada.

That dose't mean it happens all the time half of the staff is removed. Even that takes time. Lets hope for a Draw on 23rd or latest by 30. I assume there would be a Draw on 23rd.