Ray of Hope - 118th Draw

[sarak1812]

How high will be the cut off in next draw ?

 

[BingW]

I am really frastrated for the immigration. Everyday I pray for the points to come down. But every draw disappoints me.

 

[robin6869]

How high will be the cut off in next draw ?

To be frank draw would be higher and most probably happening next wednesday with 3350 or max 3500 if we are lucky then 3700 max. Score would be not less then 456. Eventually they will keep 3700 ITA in last quarter of year but still their intention is quite clear to keep is above 450 for rest of the year.

And those folks saying after election all going to change is never gonna happen, yes they might change refugee policy and may be make EE little tougher but nothing more.

 

[SeniorStakes]

To be frank draw would be higher and most probably happening next wednesday with 3350 or max 3500 if we are lucky then 3700 max. Score would be not less then 456. Eventually they will keep 3700 ITA in last quarter of year but still their intention is quite clear to keep is above 450 for rest of the year.

And those folks saying after election all going to change is never gonna happen, yes they might change refugee policy and may be make EE little tougher but nothing more.

The next draw will have 3900 or more ITAs. Don't know what is going on in their mind but they are deviating from their targets.

 

[robin6869]

The next draw will have 3900 or more ITAs. Don't know what is going on in their mind but they are deviating from their targets.

bro i hope the same but still they will be reaching their target even with 3350 of ITAs but still all ITAs are never approved so that they will raise ITAs eventually but cant gurantee for next draw only.

 

[SeniorStakes]

I am 99 Percent sure that there will be a draw today. Ministerial instructions are given to conduct draw within two days so it can happen today too.

I don't think they will push it to next Monday or Wednesday. That would be futile, senseless and illogical.

 

[robin6869]

I am 99 Percent sure that there will be a draw today. Ministerial instructions are given to conduct draw within two days so it can happen today too.

I don't think they will push it to next Monday or Wednesday. That would be futile, senseless and illogical.

I hope you are right

 

[Nsidhu]

Brother, this was my old post and I reanalyzed the numbers and shared the updated predictions later. See updated post:

PREDICTION FOR TODAY:

DATA FACTS:

• 451 & above Applicants on May 10 – Total 1,985 (317+1,668)
• 225-230 Applicants (451+) addition on daily basis
• Expected new additions of 451+ Applicants from May 10 to May 22 = 225*10 = 2,250
• 451 & above Applicants on May 22 (Projected) – Total 4,235 (1,985+2,250)

PREDICTION:
3350: Cut off will be 457 +/- 1
3500: Cut off will be 455 +/- 1
3900: Cut off will be 453 +/- 1

@13nitinsharma
Agreed. But i have one question I was checking previous ROH threads that you posted directly data from cic. so the range 451-600 usually fluctuates between 1500-1999 people every time they shows the CRS score distributions. It doesn’t really go more than that and 300 the range over 600score . That’s from march to may.

Then how do we calculate the cut off when we are not sure how may people having score more than 451 are adding up from may 10 to may 21. May be they have score less than 451.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Irrelevant to this thread, but let's focus on election results today.

Best case scenario by evening:
1. Modi falling short of majority
2. A draw today with 4500 ITAs

If both happen, I'll party hard

 

[robin6869]

Agreed. But i have one question I was checking previous ROH threads that you posted directly data from cic. so the range 451-600 usually fluctuates between 1500-1999 people every time they shows the CRS score distributions. It doesn’t really go more than that. 300 the range over 600score . That’s from march to may.

Then how do we calculate the cut off when we are not sure how may people having score more than 451 are adding up from may 10 to may 21. May be they have score less than 451.

you have a point bro but we need to keep that in mind that people all over the globe applying in EE so chances are highly unlikely that most of them have 451 or lesser. thats my understanding

 

[Nsidhu]

I am 99 Percent sure that there will be a draw today. Ministerial instructions are given to conduct draw within two days so it can happen today too.

I don't think they will push it to next Monday or Wednesday. That would be futile, senseless and illogical.

Aahh finally after 7-8 hours someone came and gave hope for draw today. Thank you. Where did you see the ministerial instructions

 

[Nsidhu]

you have a point bro but we need to keep that in mind that people all over the globe applying in EE so chances are highly unlikely that most of them have 451 or lesser. thats my understanding

Sister .yeah i was also talking globally. So then i have still chance with 455

 

[robin6869]

Sister .yeah i was also talking globally. So then i have still chance with 455

yes 455 is more than enough
cheers

 

[EnthuChap]

b2b draw will create more trouble now. Like what happened on Jan30

The positive side of it is that historically the draw size has been around 3900 in the second half of the year. So a b2b draw won't be detrimental this time around.

 

[sarak1812]

I am 99 Percent sure that there will be a draw today. Ministerial instructions are given to conduct draw within two days so it can happen today too.

I don't think they will push it to next Monday or Wednesday. That would be futile, senseless and illogical.

where is the ministerial instructions ?