Ray of Hope - 117th Draw

[Suhasrs]

This draw was my last hope. My score is 450, yet I did not qualify because I submitted my profile on March 10,2019. My birthday is on 9th May. After that, my score will become 445 :-(

 

[winterisnotcoming]

A bit of my theory here.

Assume that majority of the candidates go through WES before creating the EE. The standard time for Wes evaluations is 2 months. However in late feb due to some reason Wes said that the number of applicants had risen and hence they sounded out to all applicants that the standard time of evaluation post acceptance of documents has now been increased to 35 days from 20 days. my own evaluation took 3 months and I received the same a week ago.
Hence the spurt in 451+ could be because of this backlog.

I believe that the number of 451+ was very close 3350 this time and very very few slots were left for 450 candidates. Hence the ridiculous tie breaker.

Now since the Wes backlog has cleared and now I sense that they are back up to speed on their evaluation, the number of candidates entering the EE pool will also normalise.

So, 450 folks keep your chin up and next draw will surely bring back the normal cutoffs back. All the best!

Is there a source for this? "Now since the Wes backlog has cleared"
Curious what's the current timeline is.

 

[13nitinsharma]

This draw was my last hope. My score is 450, yet I did not qualify because I submitted my profile on March 10,2019. My birthday is on 9th May. After that, my score will become 445 :-(

This is sad, have no words to say anything.

Is there any chance if you can increase your scores by reattempting IELTS or anything else? Figure that out.

 

[EnthuChap]

The targets that have been published are for ADMISSIONS into Canada, not ITAs, that's why last year, although the target admissions level was ~75000, by December they had issued a whopping 89,800 ITAs
(https://www.cicnews.com/2018/12/can...core-to-lowest-of-2018-1211628.html#gs.987gkz)

People reject ITAs for all sorts of reasons, and people are rejected in their applications as well.
If just 10% of people who are issued ITAs either reject them or denied; your 80000 ITA target in reality becomes 88,888 actual ITAs being issued, which means using your logic
88,888 - 31250 = 57638 / 16 = 3602 ITAs every 2 weeks, an increase on the 3,350 number

Your explanation makes perfect sense mate. If 89K ITAs were issued last year, then certainly more will be issued this year, with greater intake goals. Also, it implies that draw sizes will become bigger in the second half and CRS will drop.

 

[13nitinsharma]

(Updated till 1:00 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 0) - 0

• 455-460 (Total 0) – 0

• 450-454 (Total 14) - 13nitinsharma: 450 | Yiss: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | matteis:450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | | skg1988: 450 | Suhasrs: 450 | DreamITA: 450 | mamuso: 450

• 445-449 (Total 38) - Shaanoh: 449 | Ali1122: 447 | Sara890: 447 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | D'trox: 447 | Div_newbie:449 | vmsanthosh.chn:446 | Kk1234:446 | aloobharta01:448 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | veritas1994: 449 | frightenedpanda: 445 | patel_d07: 448 | Noopur_23: 447 | dawak: 445 | dappy9: 449 | Ravi_15: 447 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Manru:449 | msgill88:445 | SASH8288: 446 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | v_nitesh_k: 449 | Sreedev83: 446 | Tivativalu: 448 | Queenslander88: 445 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | MynameisMTS: 446 | MittalM: 445 | | Flowerview: 447 | RochelleAlford: 446 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | siataheri:445 | Meer85: 447 | MV18: 447 | royalking: 447 | AmeyaGodbole: 448

• 441-444 (Total 24) - NikSharma01:444 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | JamesRodriguez: 440 | LKRYA: 443 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Ram89: 441 | cdddelhi: 444 | Life79: 441 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | Kiamin: 442 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | intels: 441 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | | kadeed:444 | rharmon: 443 | Jms_16: 444 | Maalee: 441 | seff786: 443

• 435-440 (Total 13) - Siddharth-BOM: 438 | ppa: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Nidsy: 438 | Sam0301: 437 | bluehorse:440 | ghvijay: 438 | Tamilan8: 440

• Below 435 (Total 5) - moto90: 424 | Day2203: 431 | Sdabas: 421 | AND IND: 423 | Eddiesol: 433

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

 

[SeniorStakes]

@SeniorStakes Buddy your math skills are just crazy! M not able to comprehend this pool distribution thing. Could you help me solve one riddle? With crs of 450 and submission on 28th march, do I and @DreamITA and @13nitinsharma get ITA in next draw?

I m not astrologer; through math skills, one can reason past events and predict approximate future events.... To answer your question, it depends on future application inflow which nobody, including CIC, knows.

With elections imminent, there can be a mad rush of applications so CRS score can increase too. On the flip side, it can go down to 448 too but no further.

I don't think we will witness any one week draw until elections.

 

[13nitinsharma]

So you mean there is greater probability of score even going down, in that case 450 club will def sail through

Like I said, score will go down gradually. The way draws are happening currently (3350 ITAs every two weeks), it will take sometime (assuming next two draws) to reach 449 score. Till then, think about the backlog of 449 would have been increased like hell.

 

[SithLord]

Not yet bro, I lost in tie-breaker yesterday.

May be in the next draw, I hope. Wait continues, Let's see

Oh man, so close

 

[13nitinsharma]

Oh man, so close

Yeah I know but in the ROH thread, our hopes will always remain high and will always keep moving

We all are UNITED here to face the storm together. Like I always say - It's not over until I WIN !!

 

[SithLord]

Yeah I know but in the ROH thread, our hopes will always remain high and will always keep moving

We all are UNITED here to face the storm together. Like I always say - It's not over until I WIN !!

That's the spirit. I remember my ROH days, this thread was highly motivating and I eventually made it. So your time will come bud

Good luck!!

 

[13nitinsharma]

That's the spirit. I remember my ROH days, this thread was highly motivating and I eventually made it. So your time will come bud

Good luck!!

The harder the struggle, the more glorious the triumph

Chins Up, Hopes High!!!

 

[sriguru12]

I dont understand why people think that the upcoming election might put a stop to immigration. Canada needs immigrants for their economy. Canadians are not against immigration. They welcome immigrants whole-heartedly.

If a new Govt is formed they might reduce the quota for asylum seekers or refugees kind of immigrants but definitely not the economy class.

 

[Suhasrs]

This is sad, have no words to say anything.

Is there any chance if you can increase your scores by reattempting IELTS or anything else? Figure that out.

I have maxed out in IELTS. My spouse could write again to get 2 or 3 more points.

 

[Suhasrs]

I have maxed out in IELTS. My spouse could write again to get 2 or 3 more points.

There is another thing. WES evaluated my 2 year MS in BITS Pilani (WILP) as 1 year PG diploma. I lost 7 points because of this. Is it possible to ask WES for reasoning or reevaluate the ECA report ?

 

[NikSharma01]

Is it possible to get ITA even if the profile is submitted after the data collection date? If yes, then what is the importance of the Data collection date?

Yes. Even you can make it by submitting your profile one day prior the draw.
The date and data shared by CIC renders the details regarding the applicnts present in the pool before a draw. Based on that, we can make assumptions about our turns as well.
So, its a crucial thing to be shared by CIC and also our right to know what are the current figures!