Ray of Hope - 94th Draw

[hope2018]

Yes i received NOI but did not apply or avail it. Nothing can be done is it now ???? Only option is to wait for nomination again or can i still write to them ?

You dont wait for nomination, you wait for another NOI but since you didnt not accept it last time, you will not get again unless you re-create your profile. Not sure why you keep saying nomination.

 

[Reddiered07]

@abhishek_89 Prediction Plz!

 

[Gibacho]

Ok, I prepared a crude analysis on when can we expect the CRS to drop in the coming months.
This is based on the assumption that any increase in CRS is due to IELTS results (primarily - and the most contributed) and that Indian applicants form the major part in the same.
Also assuming draws are to happen on 2nd and 4th Wednesdays in the coming months and the number of candidates being invited each draw remain more or less constant. On a target of 74,900, they have invited 39,700 till 25-Jun-2018.

https://wetransfer.com/downloads/cc...load_button&utm_source=notify_recipient_email

(apologies but i didn't know how to add a png file to the thread... so sending a wetransfer link.

 

[Emmemm07]

Good luck to everyone who’s waiting for today’s draw!

 

[abhishek_89]

JULY 11, 2018 - DRAW PREDICTION:

I have come up with the prediction for the 94th draw.

If it happens today (Jul 11) with:
3750 ITAs - CRS 440
4000 ITAs - CRS 440
4250 ITAs - CRS 439

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

 

[peacefulwarrior]

Ok, I prepared a crude analysis on when can we expect the CRS to drop in the coming months.
This is based on the assumption that any increase in CRS is due to IELTS results (primarily - and the most contributed) and that Indian applicants form the major part in the same.
Also assuming draws are to happen on 2nd and 4th Wednesdays in the coming months and the number of candidates being invited each draw remain more or less constant. On a target of 74,900, they have invited 39,700 till 25-Jun-2018.

https://wetransfer.com/downloads/cc...load_button&utm_source=notify_recipient_email

(apologies but i didn't know how to add a png file to the thread... so sending a wetransfer link.

Man, most of your predictions are 450+. So you don't think that 440 barrier will be broken this year?

 

[dhruv.sehgal]

You dont wait for nomination, you wait for another NOI but since you didnt not accept it last time, you will not get again unless you re-create your profile. Not sure why you keep saying nomination.

Re creating means simply re submit all steps documents again ?

 

[hope2018]

Re creating means simply re submit all steps documents again ?

What documents? You need to re-create EE profile.
But there is tie breaker rule as well so keep all that in consideration.

 

[Reddiered07]

JULY 11, 2018 - DRAW PREDICTION:

I have come up with the prediction for the 94th draw.

If it happens today (Jul 11) with:
3750 ITAs - CRS 440
4000 ITAs - CRS 440
4250 ITAs - CRS 439

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

Did you factor in no ielts effect? Or new entrants you took the avg of past 2-3 months?

 

[Gibacho]

Man, most of your predictions are 450+. So you don't think that 440 barrier will be broken this year?

Well i have given my reasons for the same. I am also around 435 - 437, I will have to figure a way out as well.

 

[dhruv.sehgal]

What documents? You need to re-create EE profile.
But there is tie breaker rule as well so keep all that in consideration.

Thanks much!! Does re creating E-E profile changes anything on my current profile in pool ? ? How do we re create it ?

 

[Jaywalker]

Ok, I prepared a crude analysis on when can we expect the CRS to drop in the coming months.
This is based on the assumption that any increase in CRS is due to IELTS results (primarily - and the most contributed) and that Indian applicants form the major part in the same.
Also assuming draws are to happen on 2nd and 4th Wednesdays in the coming months and the number of candidates being invited each draw remain more or less constant. On a target of 74,900, they have invited 39,700 till 25-Jun-2018.

https://wetransfer.com/downloads/cc...load_button&utm_source=notify_recipient_email

(apologies but i didn't know how to add a png file to the thread... so sending a wetransfer link.

Hey - I just looked at your file. With no offence meant - Your numbers are way off the mark - As per the file you shared the CRS cutoff barring today' draw will be > 450 till the end of this year? Just FYI- even though the rate of profiles addition >440 has increased this year a lot. But still the CRS went up to more than 450 only twice and only when there was a 3 week draw.

 

[peacefulwarrior]

Well i have given my reasons for the same. I am also around 435 - 437, I will have to figure a way out as well.

What are your options? (Other than hoping OINP would provide you NOI)

 

[Gibacho]

Hey - I just looked at your file. With no offence meant - Your numbers are way off the mark - As per the file you shared the CRS cutoff barring today' draw will be > 450 till the end of this year? Just FYI- even though the rate of profiles addition >440 has increased this year a lot. But still the CRS went up to more than 450 only twice and only when there was a 3 week draw.

Hmm ok I could be wrong, but then would like like to improve upon what i have mentioned?

 

[Sam_7511]

Any updates on new HCP NOI’s ???