Ray of Hope - 80th Draw

[dt12]

Why do you guys think the score will go down in the future when as we can see more and more high scorers entering the pool?

 

[Aryaansohaali]

Lost it to the tie breaker. Feeling so distraught.

Me too.. keep the spirits up. Looking at the pool we have a bright chance if we have a draw on jan 3

 

[Histrionics]

Me too.. keep the spirits up. Looking at the pool we have a bright chance if we have a draw on jan 3

Thanks. I know I'll start to be hopeful again in some time.

 

[Aryaansohaali]

Why do you guys think the score will go down in the future when as we can see more and more high scorers entering the pool?

If you look at the pool closely we have lesser high scoring candidates entering the pool in the last 2 weeks as compared to the previous 2 weeks. Plus we are expecting a slightly higher no ita s in the new year

 

[angelique26]

Hi everyone....My name is Angie and I'm cuban. I'm 26 years old and I'm sitting at 424 with my husband, our second year so far. I've been reading your posts for a long time and surely you all give a lot of hope...
Good luck and I'll keep in touch

 

[tiffphany23]

Today’s cutoff Prediction:

CRS: 446
ITA: 2750

Wow!

 

[JayPei]

Can someone please confirm I made the profile on nov 21 and am at 446. Am I in or out it says oct 2 does it mean all people who made profile after oct 2 will be selected ?? Please reply very tense

The Tie-breaking rule is applicable only for CRS 446; and the last ranked candidate selected for today's draw is having a score of 446 and he/she created his/her profile on October 02, 2017 at 14:56:53 UTC ; that means who has created their profile after October 02, 2017 at 14:56:53 UTC and having 446 will not be invited this time.

 

[abhishek_89]

Bro, just wow, you are just a magician

Can you do some rough prediction for the January 3rd CRS too? I mean, you might not have done all the research for that draw, but maybe you can say about the Cutoff on an assumption basis ?
: D

Rough prediction would be CRS 441 with 2750 ITAs. Though I am expecting the ITAs to increase in the next draw.

 

[abhishek_89]

@abhishek,
Where did you get this data from? it might help us.

That was my prediction based on average intake to the pool.

 

[ChrisBanks]

The Tie-breaking rule is applicable only for CRS 446; and the last ranked candidate selected for today's draw is having a score of 446 and he/she created his/her profile on October 02, 2017 at 14:56:53 UTC ; that means who has created their profile after October 02, 2017 at 14:56:53 UTC and having 446 will not be invited this time.

If I update my job every month on my profile, is it gonna affect me for the ITA?

 

[abhishek_89]

how come you were so close to 446 (quoting 445)...just guessing...any formula?

I guess you are new here!

I calculate the average intake to the pool per day at each CRS range based on historical data, assume the ITAs to be issued is same as in the previous draw and based on that predict the cut off.

 

[dt12]

If you look at the pool closely we have lesser high scoring candidates entering the pool in the last 2 weeks as compared to the previous 2 weeks. Plus we are expecting a slightly higher no ita s in the new year

If you look at the pool closely we have lesser high scoring candidates entering the pool in the last 2 weeks as compared to the previous 2 weeks. Plus we are expecting a slightly higher no ita s in the new year

Yeah I hope so too. Can experts here come up with an exactly number by statiscal analysis? I'm at 445 and feel sad right now.

 

[abhishek_89]

you are almost always spot on. What do you think, is 2750 ITAs the new norm? Or final settlements before the launch of new quotas for 2018?

I am expecting the ITA counts to increase from Jan 2018 onwards. Need to wait and watch!

 

[abhishek_89]

I have come up with the prediction for the 80th draw.

If it happens today (Dec 20) with:
2750 ITAs - CRS 445

The variance in the above calculation is +/- 2 CRS.

Please find below the CRS cut off in case the number of ITAs issued is more/less than the predicted ITA count:

Another draw where CIC beats me with a score of 1 or 2. I guess they knowingly do it so that it doesn't look as if they copied my predicted cut off score for the draw

I don't mind that though unless they hike the ITAs starting from the Jan 3rd draw onwards!

Congrats to all those who got ITAs today!

 

[JayPei]

If I update my job every month on my profile, is it gonna affect me for the ITA?

I dont think so. They consider the time when you created your profile; you can make changes ( updating IELTS score, adding job information etc.) in the profile , that 'time' will not change.